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Eredivisie
Eredivisie Netherlands
04.04.2026 16:45 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Finished

Eredivisie

Netherlands

AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard

Netherlands Football
Stadium AFAS Stadion
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
2 : 0
Finished
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AZ Alkmaar.

Line favourite market consensus: AZ Alkmaar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.34 / X 5.20 / 2 7.60
  • 1X2 market: AZ Alkmaar 69.7% / X 18.0% / Fortuna Sittard 12.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 65.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.0%
1 69.7%
X 18.0%
2 12.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.9%
Over 2.5 65.9%
Under 2.5 34.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Match center

AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.60 market consensus · line only
X 5.20 market consensus · line only
1 1.34 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.12 market consensus · line only
12 1.14 market consensus · line only
1X 1.08 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.12 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.54 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 10.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.74 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.12 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1%
X 5.30 18.9% 5.60 17.9% 5.53 18.1% 5.00 20.0% 4.75 21.1% 5.30 18.9%
7.60 13.2% 7.60 13.2% 8.20 12.2% 7.00 14.3% 8.00 12.5% 8.25 12.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.08 48.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.10 32.3% 3.24 30.9% 2.90 34.5% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.15 87.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7%
home_draw 1.08 92.6% 1.07 93.5% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.75 — — 1.11 90.1%
Over 2.0 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.25 — — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Over 3.25 — 1.93 51.8% —
Over 3.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 4.5 3.50 28.6% — —
Over 5.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 2.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Under 3.25 — 1.97 50.8% —
Under 3.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 4.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 5.5 1.11 90.1% — —