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Eredivisie
Eredivisie Netherlands
04.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Excelsior - NEC Nijmegen

Netherlands Football
Stadium Vaudesteyn
Excelsior
Excelsior
0 : 2
Finished
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 NEC Nijmegen — 54%

1 · Excelsior22.1%
X · draw24.2%
2 · NEC Nijmegen53.8%

Model estimate: win Excelsior 22.1%, draw 24.2%, win NEC Nijmegen 53.8%. Model favourite — NEC Nijmegen.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Excelsior - NEC Nijmegen April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like NEC Nijmegen.

Strongest: NEC Nijmegen - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.37 / X 3.83 / 2 1.95
  • 1X2 market: Excelsior 27.8% / X 24.4% / NEC Nijmegen 47.9%
  • Glicko: Excelsior 22.1% / X 24.2% / NEC Nijmegen 53.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.1%
1 27.7%
X 24.4%
2 47.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.3%
Over 2.5 63.0%
Under 2.5 37.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 51.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 1:2

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Vaudesteyn (Rotterdam)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model NEC Nijmegen 54%
💹 Market NEC Nijmegen 4785%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Excelsior - NEC Nijmegen

Excelsior: Win 3.60 Excelsior: Draw 3.90 NEC Nijmegen Win: 1.91 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Excelsior bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Excelsior menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov NEC…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 11
Statistics 22
Lineups 2
min Event Player Team
30' 30' Normal Goal | B. Linssen | assist/sub out: D. Nejasmic NEC Nijmegen
60' 60' Substitution 2 | E. Hansson | assist/sub out: I. Yegoian Excelsior
71' 71' Normal Goal | B. Onal | assist/sub out: S. Ouaissa NEC Nijmegen
76' 76' Substitution 5 | L. Hartjes | assist/sub out: M. van Duinen Excelsior
76' 76' Substitution 6 | A. Zagre | assist/sub out: S. Janssen Excelsior
80' 80' Substitution 4 | B. Onal | assist/sub out: D. Proper NEC Nijmegen
81' 81' Substitution 5 | B. Linssen | assist/sub out: Danilo Pereira NEC Nijmegen
81' 81' Substitution 6 | E. Dasa | assist/sub out: B. Pereira NEC Nijmegen
Metric Excelsior NEC Nijmegen SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.72 1.32 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 2 final
Shots off target 2 5 final
Shots on target 5 5 final
Udary vsego 9 12 final
Fouls soversheno 8 9 final
Offsides 2 2 final
Ball possession, % 45 55 final
Player Team Metric SStats
Danilo NEC Nijmegen football.player.assists 0
Danilo NEC Nijmegen Seyvy 0
Danilo NEC Nijmegen football.player.minutes_played 9
Danilo NEC Nijmegen Klyuchevye pasy 6
Danilo NEC Nijmegen Pasy vsego 1
Danilo NEC Nijmegen Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Danilo NEC Nijmegen Shots on target 1
Danilo NEC Nijmegen Otbory vsego 3
I. Hansen-Aarøen NEC Nijmegen Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Excelsior 27.2% 22.1%
Draw 23.9% 24.2% draw risk
NEC Nijmegen 48.9% 53.8% market and model agree
xG - 0.99 : 1.68
Total 2.5 Over 82.7% - Under 17.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 22.1% / 24.2% / 53.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,446 / 1,624 Excelsior / NEC Nijmegen
RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.95 market consensus · weak value +4.8% · model 53.8%
X 3.83 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.37 market consensus · no value · model 22.1%
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 77.9%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.8%
1X 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 46.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.68 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.48 market consensus · value +22.4% · model 82.7%
Under 2.5 2.52 market consensus · no value · model 17.3%
Both teams to score
No 2.58 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.45 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.48 28.7% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.60 27.8%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.10 24.4% 3.95 25.3% 3.70 27.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.70 27.0%
1.97 50.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.62 38.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.60 38.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.65 37.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.55 39.2%
yes 1.42 70.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.15 87.0% — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.0 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 2.25 — — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5 1.48 67.6% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 3.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Over 4.5 3.70 27.0% — —
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4% — —
Under 1.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.60 38.5% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.05 48.8% —
Under 3.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9% — —
Match center
Excelsior
Founded 1902
NEC Nijmegen
Founded 1900
Match center
Excelsior
HA H. Akujobi Injury
CR C. Raatsie Shoulder Injury
NEC Nijmegen
JC J. Cillessen Injury
BP B. Pereira Injury
Excelsior Founded: 1902
NEC Nijmegen Founded: 1900
Match center

Full head-to-head historyExcelsior - NEC Nijmegen

Excelsior
0 matches total
NEC Nijmegen
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.