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Eredivisie
Eredivisie Netherlands
05.04.2026 10:15 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 10:15 UTC
Finished

Eredivisie

Netherlands

GO Ahead Eagles - PEC Zwolle

Netherlands Football
Stadium De Adelaarshorst
Capacity 10 400
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
5 : 0
Finished
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 GO Ahead Eagles — 43%

1 · GO Ahead Eagles43.1%
X · draw25.3%
2 · PEC Zwolle31.6%

Model estimate: win GO Ahead Eagles 43.1%, draw 25.3%, win PEC Zwolle 31.6%. Model favourite — GO Ahead Eagles.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction GO Ahead Eagles - PEC Zwolle April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like GO Ahead Eagles.

Strongest: GO Ahead Eagles - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.95 / X 3.75 / 2 3.39
  • 1X2 market: GO Ahead Eagles 47.7% / X 24.8% / PEC Zwolle 27.5%
  • Glicko: GO Ahead Eagles 43.1% / X 25.3% / PEC Zwolle 31.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 18.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.4%
1 47.7%
X 24.8%
2 27.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.8%
Over 2.5 61.0%
Under 2.5 39.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 45.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 10:15 UTC
Stadium De Adelaarshorst (Deventer)
Capacity 10,400

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model GO Ahead Eagles 43%
💹 Market GO Ahead Eagles 4767%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

GO Ahead Eagles - PEC Zwolle

GO Ahead Eagles: Win 1.95 GO Ahead Eagles: Draw 3.90 PEC Zwolle Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.35 Individualnyy total golov GO Ahead Eagles bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov GO Ahead Eagles menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individu…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 5:0
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 4
min Event Player Team
4' 4' Normal Goal | S. I. Sigurdarson | assist/sub out: A. Adelgaard GO Ahead Eagles
7' 7' Normal Goal | S. Tengstedt GO Ahead Eagles
15' 15' Normal Goal | V. Edvardsen GO Ahead Eagles
36' 36' Yellow Card | K. Kostons PEC Zwolle
46' 46' Substitution 1 | K. Kostons | assist/sub out: N. Fichtinger PEC Zwolle
46' 46' Substitution 2 | T. Gooijer | assist/sub out: O. Aertssen PEC Zwolle
56' 56' Normal Goal | A. Adelgaard GO Ahead Eagles
62' 62' Substitution 2 | S. I. Sigurdarson | assist/sub out: E. Linthorst GO Ahead Eagles
Metric GO Ahead Eagles PEC Zwolle SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.02 1.49 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final
Shots off target 1 10 final
Shots on target 12 1 final
Udary vsego 15 16 final
Fouls soversheno 9 16 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 1 0 final
GO Ahead Eagles #8 Z. Buurmeester, #9 Y. Namli
Player Team Metric SStats
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles football.player.assists 0
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Dribling popytki 7
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Dribling uspeshno 4
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Edinoborstva vyigrano 15
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Fouls soversheno 2
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Fouls na igroke 2
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Seyvy 0
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles football.player.minutes_played 90
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Tochnost pasov % 4
Y. Namli GO Ahead Eagles Klyuchevye pasy 28
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
GO Ahead Eagles 47.9% 43.1% market and model agree
Draw 25.0% 25.3% draw risk
PEC Zwolle 27.1% 31.6%
xG - 1.50 : 1.25
Total 2.5 Over 18.1% - Under 81.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.1% / 25.3% / 31.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,501 / 1,497 GO Ahead Eagles / PEC Zwolle
RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.39 market consensus · no value · model 31.6%
X 3.75 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.95 market consensus · no value · model 43.1%
Double chance
X2 1.82 market consensus · weak value +3.6% · model 56.9%
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.7%
1X 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 68.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.45 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.87 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 18.1%
Under 2.5 2.38 market consensus · weak value +94.9% · model 81.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.48 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.47 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.97 50.8% 2.01 49.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.90 52.6%
X 3.85 26.0% 3.85 26.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 3.80 26.3%
3.35 29.9% 3.52 28.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.46 40.7% 2.45 40.8%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.0 — 1.18 84.8%
Over 2.25 — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5% 1.48 67.6%
Over 2.75 — 1.61 62.1%
Over 3.0 — 1.80 55.6%
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6% —
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% —
Over 5.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 1.5 4.75 21.1% —
Under 2.5 2.40 41.7% —
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7% —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% —
Under 5.5 1.07 93.5% —
Match center
GO Ahead Eagles
Founded 1971
PEC Zwolle
Founded 1910
Match center
GO Ahead Eagles
GN G. Nauber Broken Leg
SP Saathof Pim Knee Injury
PEC Zwolle
JS J. Schendelaar Thigh Injury
JM Jamiro Monteiro Muscle Injury
GO Ahead Eagles Founded: 1971
PEC Zwolle Founded: 1910
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.