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Eredivisie
Eredivisie Netherlands
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Finished

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Heerenveen - Heracles

Netherlands Football
Stadium Abe Lenstra Stadion
Capacity 27 224
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
4 : 1
Finished
Heracles
Heracles
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Heerenveen — 64%

1 · Heerenveen ✓ Pick63.8%
market65%
X · draw20.3%
market19%
2 · Heracles15.9%
market16%

Model estimate: win Heerenveen 63.8%, draw 20.3%, win Heracles 15.9%. Model favourite — Heerenveen.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Heerenveen - Heracles April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Heerenveen.

Strongest: Heerenveen - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.43 / X 4.76 / 2 5.91
  • 1X2 market: Heerenveen 64.8% / X 19.5% / Heracles 15.7%
  • Glicko: Heerenveen 63.8% / X 20.3% / Heracles 15.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 20.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 ✓ Pick 64.8%
X 19.5%
2 15.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.3%
Over 2.5 64.3%
Under 2.5 35.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 64.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Stadium Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen)
Capacity 27,224

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Heerenveen 64%
💹 Market Heerenveen 6479%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Heerenveen - Heracles

Heerenveen: Win 1.42 Heerenveen: Draw 5.50 Heracles Win: 6.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Heerenveen bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Heerenveen menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Her…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:1
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 2
min Event Player Team
15' 15' Goal cancelled | M. Rivera Heerenveen
21' 21' Normal Goal Heracles
35' 35' Normal Goal | J. Trenskow | assist/sub out: J. van Overeem Heerenveen
45' 45' Penalty | L. Nordås Heerenveen
45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | M. Benita Heracles
46' 46' Substitution 2 | L. Zeefuik | assist/sub out: T. van Gilst Heracles
47' 47' Own Goal | A. Van Hoorenbeeck Mohammed Al Ghamdi Heerenveen
49' 49' Yellow Card | T. Bruns Heracles
Metric Heerenveen Heracles SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.42 1.33 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 0 final
Shots off target 4 3 final
Shots on target 14 4 final
Udary vsego 24 7 final
Fouls soversheno 12 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Heerenveen #14 E. Ahlstrand, #22 R. Pasveer
Player Team Metric SStats
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen football.player.assists 0
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Dribling popytki 4
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Dribling uspeshno 2
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Edinoborstva vsego 2
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Fouls na igroke 1
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Conceded golov 1
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Seyvy 0
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen football.player.minutes_played 90
E. Ahlstrand Heerenveen Klyuchevye pasy 21
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Heerenveen 65.3% 63.8% market and model agree
Draw 19.2% 20.3% draw risk
Heracles 15.5% 15.9%
xG - 2.07 : 0.93
Total 2.5 Over 20.9% - Under 79.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 63.8% / 20.3% / 15.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,570 / 1,383 Heerenveen / Heracles
RD 76 / 79 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.91 market consensus · no value · model 15.9%
X 4.76 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 63.8%
Double chance
X2 2.71 market consensus · no value · model 36.2%
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 79.7%
1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 84.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.79 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.75 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.45 market consensus · no value · model 20.9%
Under 2.5 2.61 market consensus · weak value +106.4% · model 79.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.21 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.46 68.5% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.36 73.5%
X 4.65 21.5% 4.99 20.0% 4.50 22.2% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 4.60 21.7%
6.00 16.7% 6.17 16.2% 5.50 18.2% 6.00 16.7% 6.10 16.4% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.20 45.5% 2.23 44.8% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5%
yes 1.60 62.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.58 63.3% 1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.62 38.2% 2.72 36.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.75 36.4% 2.80 35.7% 2.88 34.7%
home_away 1.14 87.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.25 — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.48 67.6% 1.41 70.9%
Over 2.75 — 1.51 66.2%
Over 3.0 — 1.66 60.2%
Over 3.5 2.20 45.5% —
Over 4.5 3.70 27.0% —
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 1.5 5.50 18.2% —
Under 2.5 2.60 38.5% —
Under 3.5 1.65 60.6% —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9% —
Match center
Heerenveen
Founded 1920
Heracles
Founded 1903
Match center
Heerenveen
AV A. van Axel Dongen Illness
LS L. Smans Knee Injury
Heracles
JR J. Reine-Adélaïde Knee Injury
MT M. te Wierik Inactive
Heerenveen Founded: 1920
Heracles Founded: 1903
Match center

Full head-to-head historyHeerenveen - Heracles

Heerenveen
0 matches total
Heracles
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.