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Eredivisie
Eredivisie Netherlands
05.04.2026 14:45 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 14:45 UTC
Finished

Eredivisie

Netherlands

NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam

Netherlands Football
Stadium Rat Verlegh Stadion
Capacity 19 000
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
0 : 0
Finished
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 NAC Breda — 40%

1 · NAC Breda39.6%
X · draw26.9%
2 · Sparta Rotterdam33.6%

Model estimate: win NAC Breda 39.6%, draw 26.9%, win Sparta Rotterdam 33.6%. Model favourite — NAC Breda.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like NAC Breda.

Strongest: NAC Breda - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.25 / X 3.46 / 2 2.92
  • 1X2 market: NAC Breda 41.3% / X 26.9% / Sparta Rotterdam 31.9%
  • Glicko: NAC Breda 39.6% / X 26.9% / Sparta Rotterdam 33.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 14.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6%
1 41.3%
X 26.9%
2 31.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 52.9%
Under 2.5 47.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 40.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 14:45 UTC
Stadium Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)
Capacity 19,000

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model NAC Breda 40%
💹 Market NAC Breda 4126%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam

NAC Breda: Win 2.38 NAC Breda: Draw 3.50 Sparta Rotterdam Win: 2.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov NAC Breda bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov NAC Breda menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:0
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Yellow Card | L. Martes Sparta Rotterdam
45' 45' Yellow Card | J. Baas Sparta Rotterdam
46' 46' Substitution 1 | L. Martes | assist/sub out: S. Sambo Sparta Rotterdam
46' 46' Substitution 2 | B. Martins Indi | assist/sub out: G. Vianello Dimitar Kisimov Sparta Rotterdam
46' 46' Substitution 3 | J. Baas | assist/sub out: A. Santos Sparta Rotterdam
55' 55' Substitution 1 | A. Salama | assist/sub out: A. Ayew NAC Breda
55' 55' Substitution 2 | A. Salama | assist/sub out: A. Ayew NAC Breda
55' 55' Yellow Card | V. van Crooij Sparta Rotterdam
Metric NAC Breda Sparta Rotterdam SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.51 0.55 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 0 final
Shots off target 6 3 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 12 6 final
Fouls soversheno 12 19 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
NAC Breda 41.3% 39.6% market and model agree
Draw 26.8% 26.9% draw risk
Sparta Rotterdam 31.9% 33.6%
xG - 1.32 : 1.19
Total 2.5 Over 14.9% - Under 85.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 39.6% / 26.9% / 33.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,424 / 1,528 NAC Breda / Sparta Rotterdam
RD 77 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.92 market consensus · no value · model 33.6%
X 3.46 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.25 market consensus · no value · model 39.6%
Double chance
X2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 60.4%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 73.2%
1X 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 66.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.18 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 14.9%
Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · weak value +70.2% · model 85.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.16 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.25 44.4% 2.33 42.9% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.20 45.5%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.56 28.1% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.40 29.4%
2.92 34.3% 3.02 33.1% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.25 44.4% 2.17 46.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.15 46.5%
yes 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.25 — 1.56 64.1%
Over 2.5 1.70 58.8% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% —
Over 4.5 5.25 19.1% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.00 25.0% —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% —
Match center
NAC Breda
Founded 1912
Sparta Rotterdam
Founded 1888
Match center
NAC Breda
MS M. Soumano Ankle Injury
Sparta Rotterdam

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

NAC Breda Founded: 1912
Sparta Rotterdam Founded: 1888
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.