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Estonia: Esiliiga Standings
Estonia: Esiliiga Standings
03.07.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction
03.07.2026 15:30 UTC
Finished

Estonia: Esiliiga Standings

Tallinna Kalev - Maardu

Futbol
T
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 3
Finished
Maardu
Maardu
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

💎 «Value»

1Tallinna Kalev — odds 2.30 · edge +3.8% · 14 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Tallinna Kalev - Maardu July 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Tallinna Kalev.

Line favourite market consensus: Tallinna Kalev. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.20 / X 3.84 / 2 2.51
  • 1X2 market: Tallinna Kalev 40.9% / X 23.4% / Maardu 35.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.3%
1 40.8%
X 23.4%
2 35.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Esiliiga A
League table
Tallinna Kalev
#522 ptsGP 186-4-835:36
DWWLL
Maardu
#620 ptsGP 175-5-723:36
DWWLD
Best price across 11 books
1 2.18 Betano
X 4.20 Betfair
2 2.80 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Tallinna Kalev
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 2.10 Conceded 1.80 xG 1.99 xGA 1.99
Maardu
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.50 xG 1.70 xGA 2.13

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Tallinna Kalev
Rating 1524
Maardu
Rating 1513

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Form and head-to-head • Esiliiga

Team stats

Tallinna Kalev
WDWDLLLLWW
W 4 • D 2 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:2.1 : 1.8
5 place, 21 pts
Maardu
DDLWWLDLWW
W 4 • D 3 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:1.2 : 1.5
7 place, 19 pts
Head-to-head: 14 — Tallinna Kalev 4, draws 5, Maardu 5 (goals 20:21)
  • FC Maardu — JK Tallinna Kalev2026-04-03 1:1
  • FC Maardu — JK Tallinna Kalev2021-11-21 1:1
  • JK Tallinna Kalev — FC Maardu2021-09-23 4:2
  • FC Maardu — JK Tallinna Kalev2021-08-02 1:2
  • JK Tallinna Kalev — FC Maardu2021-05-09 2:2

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

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Match center
Start 03.07.2026 15:30 UTC
Match center

Tallinna Kalev - Maardu

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.52 market consensus · line only
X 4.90 Fonbet · line only
1 1.16 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.11 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 4.00 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0 2.05 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.24 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 3.48 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.56 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.25 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.15 46.5% 2.23 44.8% 2.25 44.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5%
X 3.90 25.6% 3.85 26.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6%
2.50 40.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.52 39.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 3.56 28.1%
yes 1.25 80.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0% 1.11 90.1%
1x 1.36 73.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.54 64.9% 1.64 61.0% 4.00 25.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.58 38.8%
X 2.53 39.5%
3.06 32.7%
Match center
Tallinna Kalev
L L
14.06 07:30 UTC Estonia: Esiliiga Standings
Tallinna Kalev 1:3 Flora U21Flora U21
31.05 12:00 UTC Estonia: Esiliiga Standings
Tallinna Kalev 1:2 Levadiya U21Levadiya U21
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.5 Conceded
0 Points
Maardu
L
11.06 14:00 UTC Estonia: Esiliiga Standings
Maardu 3:4 ElvaElva
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
3.0 Scored
4.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyTallinna Kalev - Maardu

Tallinna Kalev
0 matches total
Maardu
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history