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Estonia. League 4

29.07.2026 20:00 UTC

Not started

Estonia. League 4

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴

Football

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷

- : -

Not started

Medelin 🇨🇴

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷): model 44% · market 58% Δ −14 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷58.0%

X · draw23.6%

2 · Medelin 🇨🇴18.4%

Model estimate: win Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 58.0%, draw 23.6%, win Medelin 🇨🇴 18.4%. Model favourite — Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Medelin 🇨🇴 (odds1.90) Score 1:2 confidence 53%

• Model backs Medelin 🇨🇴: probability 53% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
• legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
• Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴 July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.63 / X 3.93 / 2 5.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 58.3%

X 24.2%

2 17.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 20:00 UTC

Match center

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴

Football, Vasko da Gama - Independente Medelin, 30 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Vasko da Gama - Independente Medelin, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup 2026, round of 32. 2 match.

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 58.9% 58.0% market and model agree

Draw 23.7% 23.6% draw risk

Medelin 🇨🇴 17.4% 18.4%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 58.0% / 23.6% / 18.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 / Medelin 🇨🇴

RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.27 market consensus · no value · model 18.4%

X 3.88 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 58.0%

Double chance

12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 76.4%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 81.6%

X2 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 42.0%

Handicap

2 +1 1.72 market consensus · line only

1 -1 2.04 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.89 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.84 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.84 54.4%
yes	1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.22 82.0%	1.23 81.3%
1x	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%
x2	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.21 45.3%
X	2.31 43.3%
	5.40 18.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.78 56.2%
Under 1	1.97 50.8%

Match center

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷

22.07 20:00 UTC South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷 3:4 Medelin 🇨🇴

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

3.0 Scored

4.0 Conceded

0 Points

Medelin 🇨🇴

22.07 20:00 UTC South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff

Medelin 🇨🇴 4:3 Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷

1 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

4.0 Scored

3.0 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyVasko da Gama 🇧🇷 - Medelin 🇨🇴

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷

1 matches total

Medelin 🇨🇴

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Medelin 🇨🇴: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Medelin 🇨🇴 3:4 (22.07 20:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 7 goals (3:4, 22.07 20:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 3

Match history

22.07 20:00 UTC South AMERIKA: Yuzhnoamerikanskiy Cup - Playoff

Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷

3:4

Medelin 🇨🇴

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Vasko da Gama 🇧🇷

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Medelin 🇨🇴

7 Games 1

3 Wins 0

2 Draws 1

2 Losses 0

12 Scored 2

8 Conceded 2

11 Points 1

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

21 Shots on goal 0

4.57 Shots on target 0

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Vasko da Gama Independente Medelin 7 Games 1 3 Wins 0 2 Draws 1 2 Losses 0 12 Scored 2 8 Conceded 2 11 Points 1 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 21 Shots on goal 0 4.57 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.29 Uglovye 0.71 Offsaydy 0 7.29 Foly 0 44.71 % vladeniya myachom 0 2.71 Warnings 1 0.43 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 63% 12% 25% Double chance 38% 43% 19% Materialy po prognozam «Vasko da Gama» — «Goyas». Ot Ivana Kuarezhmy net polzy «Vasko da Gama» — «Flamengo». Posle «Spartaka» karera Ayrtona poshla v goru CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1317582' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');