Match center
Start
29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa Conference League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Nomme United - Trans Narva
1
:
1
Finished
T
Trans Narva
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Nomme United — 61%
Model estimate: win Nomme United 61.3%, draw 17.2%, win Trans Narva 21.5%. Model favourite — Nomme United.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Nomme United (odds11.00)
Score 2:1
Over 2.5
(odds6.60) ✗
confidence 57%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs Nymme Yunayted: probability 57% vs 9% on the line (odds 11.00)
- • edge over the line +48 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 2:1
- • Total: Over 2.5: model expects a total of ~3 goals
- • at line 2.5 (odds 6.60).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Nomme United - Trans Narva July 29, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like draw.
Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / X 1.25 / 2 4.30
- Glicko: Nomme United 61.3% / X 17.2% / Trans Narva 21.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.9%
1 ✓ Pick
6.1%
X
72.8%
2
21.2%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
11.00
↑ 15.00
1X2 X
1.35
↓ 1.25
1X2 2
3.65
↑ 4.30
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Nomme United - Trans Narva
Form
4/4
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
Movement
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 61.3% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.107 / LogLoss 1.761
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 61.3% fact: draw
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.107 / LogLoss 1.761
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Nomme United
6.1%
61.3%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
72.8%
17.2%
draw risk
Trans Narva
21.2%
21.5%
market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
61.3% / 17.2% / 21.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,666 / 1,495
Nomme United / Trans Narva
RD
195 / 192
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,276-2,055 / 1,111-1,878
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.30
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 21.5%
X
1.25
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12
3.35
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 82.8%
1X
1.18
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 78.5%
X2
1.02
Fonbet · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 38.7%
Handicap
2 0
1.20
Fonbet · line only
1 0
3.80
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
6.60
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.07
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 3.35 29.9% |
| 1x | 1.18 84.8% |
| x2 | 1.02 98.0% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.06 94.3% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 11.00 9.1% | |
| 7.70 13.0% | |
| 3.80 26.3% | |
| 6.60 15.2% | |
| 12.00 8.3% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.04 96.2% | |
| 1.20 83.3% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 6.60 15.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 1.13 88.5% |
| Over 4.5 | 5.70 17.5% |
| Over 5.5 | 7.50 13.3% |
| Over 6.5 | 12.00 8.3% |
| Over 7.5 | 10.50 9.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.07 93.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 4.80 20.8% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% |
| Under 5.5 | 1.05 95.2% |
| Under 6.5 | 1.01 99.0% |
| Under 7.5 | 1.01 99.0% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.43 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.90 34.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 2.60 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.35 74.1% |
Match center
Nomme United
W
W
L
W
Nomme United
2:1
Flora
Flora
Nomme United
3:2
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Nomme United
1:3
Kalyu
Nomme United
2:1
Narva
3
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
2.0
Scored
1.8
Conceded
9
Points
Trans Narva
W
L
L
L
Trans Narva
3:1
Pyarnu Vaprus
Pyarnu Vaprus
Trans Narva
0:3
Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri
Trans Narva
1:3
Levadiya
Trans Narva
1:2
Nymme Yunayted
Nymme Yunayted
1
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
1.3
Scored
2.3
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNomme United - Trans Narva
Nomme United
1
matches total
Nomme United: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Trans Narva: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Nymme Yunayted 2:1 (13.06 09:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (2:1, 13.06 09:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Nymme Yunayted
2:1
Narva
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