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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match 04.08.2026 16:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 16:00 UTC 3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Ararat Armenia - Celje

Football
Stadium Respublikanskiy imeni Vazgena Sarkisyana (Erevan, Armenia), vmestimost: 14935
Ararat Armenia
Ararat Armenia
- : -
Not started
Celje
Celje

Ararat Armenia take on Celje on August 4, 2026 in the UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ararat Armenia 3-0-2, Celje 1-4-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Celje — 36%

Pure model vs market (2 · Celje): model 27% · market 36% Δ −9 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Ararat Armenia35.1%
X · draw29.1%
2 · Celje35.8%

Model estimate: win Ararat Armenia 35.1%, draw 29.1%, win Celje 35.8%. Model favourite — Celje.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Celje (odds2.37) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds1.80) Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.70) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Tsele 🇸🇮: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.37)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 1.80)
  • • Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.70).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ararat Armenia - Celje August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Celje. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.80 / X 3.15 / 2 2.55

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.7% 4 books · best price +2.9%
1 34.1%
X 29.5%
2 36.4%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.90 ↓ 2.80
1X2 X 3.25 ↓ 3.15
1X2 P2 2.35 ↑ 2.55

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

UEFA Champions League
League table
Ararat Armenia
#116 ptsGP 42-0-27:5
Celje
#272 ptsGP 20-2-04:4
Best price across 14 books
1 2.83 1xBet
X 3.40 BetVictor
2 2.61 1xBet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Ararat Armenia
W-D-L 3-1-3 Scored 1.70 Conceded 1.26 xG 1.10 xGA 1.54 Corners 2.2
Celje
W-D-L 3-3-2 Scored 1.99 Conceded 1.83 xG 1.78 xGA 1.03 Corners 4.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Ararat Armenia 2 : 2 Celje
12.79
X3.23
22.68

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 17:02 UTC
1 35% ✓ favourite
X 32%
2 33%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X
Per AI data H2H: 1-0
Claude updated03.08.2026 15:47 UTC
1 35% ✓ favourite
X 31%
2 34%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:Double chance 1X (ot 1.55)
Per AI data H2H: 1-0

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 35% 32% 33% 1:1 Under 2.5 No 1X
Claude 35% 31% 34% 1:1 Under 2.5 Yes Double chance 1X (ot 1.55)

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Participant opinions
407 predictions Choose an outcome
1 70% 191
X 15% 43
2 14% 38
Double chance 1X 1.48 (15) - X2 1.45 (3) - 12 1.35 (1)
Total TB 2.5 1.92 (49) - TM 2.5 1.87 (18) - TB 3 2.55 (5)
Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.67 (38) - BTTS no 2.05 (4)
handicap1 handicap1:0 1.91 (16) - handicap2:0 1.83 (6) - handicap1:-1 4.55 (2)
Match center
Stadium Respublikanskiy imeni Vazgena Sarkisyana (Erevan, Armenia), vmestimost: 14935
Start 04.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 33.5% @ 2.80 / X 29.8% @ 3.15 / 2 36.8% @ 2.55
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Ararat Armenia 70%
🤖 7 AI models Ararat Armenia 35%
📐 Math model Celje 36%
✅ Humans and AI agree
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Ararat Armenia - Celje

football, Ararat-Armenia - Tsele, 4 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Ararat-Armenia - Tsele, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Champions League UEFA 2026/2027, 3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions LiveResult 106 - Stavka.tv 166 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ararat Armenia 34.1% 35.1%
Draw 29.5% 29.1% draw risk
Celje 36.4% 35.8% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.1% / 29.1% / 35.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,585 / 1,454 Ararat Armenia / Celje
RD 197 / 189 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,190-1,980 / 1,077-1,831 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.55 Fonbet · no value · model 35.8%
X 3.15 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.80 Fonbet · no value · model 35.1%
Double chance
12 1.33 Fonbet · no value · model 70.9%
1X 1.48 Fonbet · no value · model 64.2%
X2 1.40 Fonbet · no value · model 64.9%
Handicap
2 -1 1.16 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.00 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.80 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 4.30 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.12 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.12 47.2% 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.68 59.5% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2%
1x 1.47 68.0% 1.46 68.5% 1.48 67.6%
x2 1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.40 71.4%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.38 29.6%
X 2.13 47.0%
3.17 31.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.79 55.9%
Under 1 1.95 51.3%
Match center

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.85 (Winline) · X 3.2 (Pari) · 2 2.6 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2.8 3.2 2.5
Winline 2.85 3.2 2.41
Fonbet 2.8 3.2 2.5
Betcity 2.7 3.2 2.6
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Ararat Armenia
W L W L W
2026-08-01 Premier League 26/27
Ararat Armenia Gandzasar 3:4 Ararat Armenia
2026-07-28 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia Shamrock Rovers 2:1 Ararat Armenia
2026-07-21 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia Ararat Armenia 2:0 Shamrock Rovers
2026-07-14 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia FC Riga 3:2 Ararat Armenia
2026-07-07 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia Ararat Armenia 2:0 FC Riga
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points
Celje
D D D D W
2026-08-01 1. SNL 26/27
Celje 1:1 Maribor Celje
2026-07-28 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Celje 2:2 Egnatia Rrogozhine Celje
2026-07-22 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Egnatia Rrogozhine 3:3 Celje Celje
2026-07-17 1. SNL 26/27
Celje 2:2 Mura Celje
2026-07-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Celje 4:3 MTK Budapest Celje
1 Wins
4 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArarat Armenia - Celje

Ararat Armenia
0 matches total
Celje
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Ararat Armenia
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Celje
Ararat Armenia Team comparison Celje
4 Games 2
2 Wins 1
0 Draws 1
2 Losses 0
7 Scored 5
5 Conceded 5
6 Points 4
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
10.25 Shots on goal 4.5
3.25 Udary v stvor 3.5
4 Games 2
2 Wins 1
0 Draws 1
2 Losses 0
7 Scored 5
5 Conceded 5

Ararat-Armenia Tsele 4 Games 2 Wins 1 0 Draws 1 2 Losses 0 7 Scored 5 Conceded 5 6 Points 4 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 10.25 Shots on goal 4.5 3.25 Udary v stvor 3.5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.25 Uglovye 5 0.5 Offsaydy 2 9.75 Foly 12 45.5 % vladeniya myachom 58 2.25 Warnings 2.5 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Tulipa Glavnye trenery Vitor Kampelush Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 62% 18% 20% Double chance 40% 41% 19% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1321382' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');