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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
03.08.2026 16:00 UTC
03.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Not started

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Ararat Armenia - Celje

Football
Ararat Armenia
Ararat Armenia
- : -
Not started
Celje
Celje

Ararat Armenia face Celje on August 3, 2026 in the UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): Ararat Armenia 3-0-2, Celje 1-4-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

๐ŸŽฏ PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Celje โ€” 39%

Pure model vs market (2 ยท Celje): model 27% ยท market 39% ฮ” โˆ’12 pp model estimates below the market

1 ยท Ararat Armenia32.9%
X ยท draw28.6%
2 ยท Celje38.6%

Model estimate: win Ararat Armenia 32.9%, draw 28.6%, win Celje 38.6%. Model favourite โ€” Celje.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Celje (odds2.37) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds1.80) Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.70) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Tsele ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.37)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp โ€” value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 1.80)
  • • Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.70).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ararat Armenia - Celje August 3, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Celje. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.90 / X 3.25 / 2 2.35

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.8%
1 32.0%
X 28.5%
2 39.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 2.90 โ†’ 2.90
1X2 X 3.25 โ†’ 3.25
1X2 P2 2.35 โ†’ 2.35

โ†“ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ†‘ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 32.0% @ 2.90 / X 28.5% @ 3.25 / 2 39.5% @ 2.35
Match center

Ararat Armenia - Celje

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ararat Armenia 31.7% 32.9%
Draw 29.0% 28.6% draw risk
Celje 39.3% 38.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 32.9% / 28.6% / 38.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,585 / 1,454 Ararat-Armenia ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ / Tsele ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
RD 197 / 188 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,190-1,980 / 1,077-1,831 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.35 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 38.6%
X 3.25 Fonbet ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.90 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 32.9%
Double chance
12 1.30 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 71.4%
1X 1.53 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 61.4%
X2 1.35 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 67.1%
Handicap
2 -1 1.14 Fonbet ยท line only
2 +1 3.65 Fonbet ยท line only
2 0 1.70 Fonbet ยท line only
1 -1 4.60 Fonbet ยท line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.90 Fonbet ยท line only
Under 2.5 1.80 Fonbet ยท line only
Both teams to score
No 2.02 Fonbet ยท line only
Yes 1.70 Fonbet ยท line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.02 49.5% 2.03 49.3%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.29 77.5% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9%
1x 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4%
x2 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.51 28.5%
X 2.16 46.3%
3.00 33.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.82 55.0%
Under 1 1.92 52.1%
Match center
Ararat Armenia
W L W L W
2026-08-01 Premier League 26/27
Ararat Armenia Gandzasar 3:4 Ararat Armenia
2026-07-28 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia Shamrock Rovers 2:1 Ararat Armenia
2026-07-21 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia Ararat Armenia 2:0 Shamrock Rovers
2026-07-14 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia FC Riga 3:2 Ararat Armenia
2026-07-07 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Ararat Armenia Ararat Armenia 2:0 FC Riga
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points
Celje
D D D D W
2026-08-01 1. SNL 26/27
Celje 1:1 Maribor Celje
2026-07-28 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Celje 2:2 Egnatia Rrogozhine Celje
2026-07-22 UEFA Champions League 26/27, Qualification
Egnatia Rrogozhine 3:3 Celje Celje
2026-07-17 1. SNL 26/27
Celje 2:2 Mura Celje
2026-07-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Celje 4:3 MTK Budapest Celje
1 Wins
4 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
2.2 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArarat Armenia - Celje

Ararat Armenia
0 matches total
Celje
Biggest win โ€” largest score margin
Highest-scoring match โ€” most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw โ€” draw with the most goals

Match history