UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Celje take on Ararat Armenia on August 11, 2026 in the UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Celje 0-4-1, Ararat Armenia 3-0-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Ararat Armenia — 51%
Model estimate: win Celje 29.9%, draw 19.4%, win Ararat Armenia 50.7%. Model favourite — Ararat Armenia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.88 53.2% |
| yes | 1.88 53.2% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% |
| 1x | 1.09 91.7% |
| x2 | 2.65 37.7% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.70 58.8% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| 3.05 32.8% | |
| 3.70 27.0% | |
| 5.90 17.0% | |
| 6.70 14.9% | |
| 1.14 87.7% | |
| 2.10 47.6% | |
| 1.63 61.4% | |
| 1.30 76.9% | |
| 1.22 82.0% | |
| 1.08 92.6% | |
| 1.06 94.3% | |
| 4.70 21.3% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1 | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.20 83.3% |
| Over 2 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 3 | 2.12 47.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.60 38.5% |
| Over 4 | 4.10 24.4% |
| Over 4.5 | 4.70 21.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% |
| Under 1 | 8.00 12.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 4.00 25.0% |
| Under 2 | 3.20 31.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.07 48.3% |
| Under 3 | 1.64 61.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.43 69.9% |
| Under 4 | 1.19 84.0% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.14 87.7% |
Celje
Ararat Armenia
Full head-to-head historyCelje - Ararat Armenia
The Celje - Ararat Armenia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
