Fenerbahce meet Sturm on August 4, 2026 in the Europe: Champions League - Qualifying.
Recent form (W-D-L): Fenerbahce 4-1-0, Sturm 4-1-0. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1Fenerbahce — 66%
Pure model vs market (1 · Fenerbahce): model 46% · market 68%Δ −22 ppmodel estimates below the market
66%1
1 · Fenerbahce ✓ Pick66.3%
market68%
X · draw20.2%
market20%
2 · Sturm13.5%
market12%
Model estimate: win Fenerbahce 66.3%, draw 20.2%, win Sturm 13.5%. Model favourite — Fenerbahce.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Fenerbahce (odds2.25)Score 1:0confidence 50%
•Model backs Fenerbakhche 🇹🇷: probability 50% vs 44% on the line (odds 2.25)
•edge over the line +6 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Fenerbahce - Sturm August 4, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Fenerbahce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.38 / X 4.80 / 2 7.60
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.38→ 1.38
1X2 X4.80→ 4.80
1X2 P27.60→ 7.60
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
*
AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated03.08.2026 19:00 UTC
148%✓ favourite
X28%
224%
Score1:1Total goals: Under 2.5BTTS:YesBet:1X
Per AI dataH2H: 1-1
Claudeupdated03.08.2026 19:04 UTC
157%✓ favourite
X25%
218%
Score1:0Total goals: Under 2.5BTTS:NoBet:Under 2.5
AI consensus:1
AI
1
X
2
Score
Total goals
BTTS
Bet
Google AI
48%
28%
24%
1:1
Under 2.5
Yes
1X
Claude
57%
25%
18%
1:0
Under 2.5
No
Under 2.5
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Fenerbahce67.6%66.3%market and model agree
Draw20.1%20.2%draw risk
Sturm12.3%13.5%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P266.3% / 20.2% / 13.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,789 / 1,758
Fenerbakhche 🇹🇷 / Shturm 🇦🇹
RD199 / 173
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,391-2,188 / 1,412-2,105
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
27.60
Fonbet · no value · model 13.5%
X4.80
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.38
Fonbet · no value · model 66.3%
Double chance
121.17
Fonbet · no value · model 79.8%
1X1.07
Fonbet · no value · model 86.5%
X22.90
Fonbet · no value · model 33.7%
Handicap
2 -12.25
Fonbet · line only
2 05.20
Fonbet · line only
1 -11.55
Fonbet · line only
1 01.11
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.65
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.52.17
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.85
Fonbet · line only
Yes1.90
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
We use cookies to run the site and to understand how it’s used. Click “Accept all” to agree, or set your choice with “Cookie settings”. Read our cookie policy.
