Fenerbahce meet Sturm on August 5, 2026 in the UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Fenerbahce 4-1-0, Sturm 4-1-0. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1Fenerbahce — 68%
Pure model vs market (1 · Fenerbahce): model 46% · market 69%Δ −23 ppmodel estimates below the market
68%1
1 · Fenerbahce ✓ Pick67.9%
market69%
X · draw18.5%
market18%
2 · Sturm13.6%
market12%
Model estimate: win Fenerbahce 67.9%, draw 18.5%, win Sturm 13.6%. Model favourite — Fenerbahce.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Fenerbahce (odds2.25)Score 1:0confidence 50%
•Model backs Fenerbakhche 🇹🇷: probability 50% vs 44% on the line (odds 2.25)
•edge over the line +6 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Fenerbahce - Sturm August 5, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Fenerbahce. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.35 / X 5.10 / 2 7.60
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.38↓ 1.35
1X2 X4.80↑ 5.10
1X2 P27.60→ 7.60
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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SStats data
Statistics and model
UEFA Champions League
League table
Fenerbahce
#204 ptsGP 21-1-02:1
Sturm
#116 ptsGP 22-0-06:0
Best price
across 14 books
11.40Betano
X5.30Marathonbet
29.4010Bet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Fenerbahce
Rating 1641xG 1.95Win 60%
Sturm
Rating 1717xG 0.96Win 18%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Fenerbahce2:1Sturm
11.37
X5.20
28.10
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated03.08.2026 19:00 UTC
148%✓ favourite
X28%
224%
Score1:1Total goals: Under 2.5BTTS:YesBet:1X
Per AI dataH2H: 1-1
Claudeupdated03.08.2026 19:04 UTC
157%✓ favourite
X25%
218%
Score1:0Total goals: Under 2.5BTTS:NoBet:Under 2.5
AI consensus:1
AI
1
X
2
Score
Total goals
BTTS
Bet
Google AI
48%
28%
24%
1:1
Under 2.5
Yes
1X
Claude
57%
25%
18%
1:0
Under 2.5
No
Under 2.5
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Fenerbahce69.3%67.9%market and model agree
Draw18.3%18.5%draw risk
Sturm12.4%13.6%
xG-1.95 : 0.96
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P267.9% / 18.5% / 13.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,789 / 1,758
Fenerbahce / Sturm
RD199 / 173
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,391-2,188 / 1,411-2,105
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
27.60
Fonbet · no value · model 13.6%
X5.10
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.35
Fonbet · no value · model 67.9%
Double chance
121.15
Fonbet · no value · model 81.5%
1X1.07
Fonbet · no value · model 86.4%
X23.05
Fonbet · no value · model 32.1%
Handicap
2 -12.40
Fonbet · line only
2 05.30
Fonbet · line only
1 -11.50
Fonbet · line only
1 01.10
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.60
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.52.30
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.85
Fonbet · line only
Yes1.90
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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