UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Hapoel Beer Sheva face Crvena Zvezda on August 3, 2026 in the UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1-2, Crvena Zvezda 4-0-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Crvena Zvezda — 49%
Pure model vs market (2 · Crvena Zvezda): model 46% · market 50% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Hapoel Beer Sheva 25.6%, draw 25.2%, win Crvena Zvezda 49.2%. Model favourite — Crvena Zvezda.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.10 47.6% | 2.12 47.2% |
| yes | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.79 55.9% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.85 54.1% |
| x2 | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.17 24.0% | |
| X | 2.36 42.4% |
| 2.40 41.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.61 62.1% |
| Under 1 | 2.22 45.1% |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Crvena Zvezda
Full head-to-head historyHapoel Beer Sheva - Crvena Zvezda
The Hapoel Beer Sheva - Crvena Zvezda breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
