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Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
Europe: Champions League - Qualifying
3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match 04.08.2026 18:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 18:00 UTC 3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match
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Europe: Champions League - Qualifying

Sparta Prague - Lyon

Football
Stadium EPET Arena (Praga, Czechia), vmestimost: 20854
Sparta Prague
Sparta Prague
- : -
Not started
Lyon
Lyon

Sparta Prague meet Lyon on August 4, 2026 in the Europe: Champions League - Qualifying.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sparta Prague 2-0-3, Lyon 3-0-2. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lyon — 45%

Pure model vs market (2 · Lyon): model 44% · market 45% Δ −1 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Sparta Prague29.2%
X · draw25.7%
2 · Lyon45.1%

Model estimate: win Sparta Prague 29.2%, draw 25.7%, win Lyon 45.1%. Model favourite — Lyon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Lyon (odds2.08) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds2.00) Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.55) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Lion 🇫🇷: probability 50% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.08)
  • • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.00)
  • • Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.55).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sparta Prague - Lyon August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lyon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 3.30 / X 3.65 / 2 2.05

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6% 4 books · best price +2.7%
1 28.9%
X 25.9%
2 45.2%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 3.15 ↑ 3.30
1X2 X 3.55 ↑ 3.65
1X2 P2 2.08 ↓ 2.05

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

UEFA Champions League
Best price across 14 books
1 3.50 Betano
X 3.66 1xBet
2 2.19 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Sparta Prague
W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 1.07 Conceded 2.14 xG 1.00 xGA 1.95 Corners 2.2
Lyon
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.40 xG 1.13 xGA 1.76 Corners 5.0

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Sparta Prague 2 : 2 Lyon
13.42
X3.67
22.09

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 18:54 UTC
1 24%
X 31%
2 45% ✓ favourite
Score0:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:X2
Per AI data H2H: 4-1
Claude updated03.08.2026 18:59 UTC
1 31%
X 28%
2 41% ✓ favourite
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double chance 1X (Sparta ne proigraet) za ~1.73

AI consensus:2

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 24% 31% 45% 0:1 Under 2.5 No X2
Claude 31% 28% 41% 1:1 Under 2.5 No Double chance 1X (Sparta ne proigraet) za ~1.73

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Stadium EPET Arena (Praga, Czechia), vmestimost: 20854
Start 04.08.2026 18:00 UTC
Market 1 28.5% @ 3.30 / X 25.7% @ 3.65 / 2 45.8% @ 2.05
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Lyon 43%
📐 Math model Lyon 45%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sparta Prague - Lyon

football, Sparta P - Lion, 4 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Sparta P - Lion, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Champions League UEFA 2026/2027, 3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sparta Prague 28.9% 29.2%
Draw 25.9% 25.7% draw risk
Lyon 45.2% 45.1% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 29.2% / 25.7% / 45.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,452 / 1,646 Sparta Praga 🇨🇿 / Lion 🇫🇷
RD 211 / 187 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,030-1,874 / 1,272-2,020 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.05 Fonbet · no value · model 45.1%
X 3.65 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.30 Fonbet · no value · model 29.2%
Double chance
12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 74.3%
1X 1.73 Fonbet · no value · model 54.9%
X2 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 70.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.00 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.11 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.85 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.53 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.20 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.63 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5%
yes 1.63 61.4% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0%
1x 1.71 58.5% 1.69 59.2% 1.73 57.8%
x2 1.34 74.6% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.73 26.8%
X 2.35 42.6%
2.58 38.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.64 61.0%
Under 1 2.17 46.1%
Match center
Sparta Prague
W L L L W
2026-07-31 1. Liga 26/27
Sparta Prague Sparta Prague 3:1 Fastav Zlin
2026-07-25 1. Liga 26/27
Sparta Prague Zbrojovka Brno 3:1 Sparta Prague
2026-07-17 Club Friendly Games 2026
Sparta Prague Nordsjaelland 5:1 Sparta Prague
2026-07-16 Club Friendly Games 2026
Sparta Prague Jagiellonia Bialystok 1:0 Sparta Prague
2026-07-11 Club Friendly Games 2026
Sparta Prague Gamba Osaka 0:3 Sparta Prague
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
2.0 Conceded
6 Points
Lyon
L W L W W
2026-07-29 Club Friendly Games 2026
Betis 4:0 Lyon Lyon
2026-07-24 Club Friendly Games 2026
Wolfsburg 0:2 Lyon Lyon
2026-07-18 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lyon 0:2 Slavia Prague Lyon
2026-07-15 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lyon 2:1 Servette Lyon
2026-07-11 Club Friendly Games 2026
Lyon 6:3 Sankt Gallen Lyon
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySparta Prague - Lyon

Sparta Prague
0 matches total
Lyon
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Sparta Prague
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Lyon
Sparta Prague Team comparison Lyon
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0

Sparta P Lion 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Brayan Priske Pedersen Glavnye trenery Paulu Fonseka Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 20% 19% 61% Double chance 20% 40% 40% Materialy po prognozam «MYu» — «Lion». Meyson Maunt nashel obschiy yazyk «Lion» — «Monako». Golovina ne puskayut v Ligu chempionov «Strasburg» — «Lion». Lovren vidit tsel and idet k ney «Lion» — «Marsel». Malinovskiy ugasaet? «Sparta Prague» — «Teplitse». Prognoz: Kanga, Kreychi and Dochkal uberut «stekloduvov» s puti «Sparta Prague» — «Viktoriya Plzen». Prognoz: Kanga oboydetsya bez podvigov «Lion» — «PSZh». Prognoz: Neymar, Mbappe and Ikardi vybyut Mussu Dembele iz Kubka France «Lion» — «Yuventus». Prognoz: golevaya seriya Ronaldu prervetsya vo France Prognozy na playoff Ligi chempionov-2019/2020: vse pary round of 16, stavki na prokhod «Lion» — «Marsel». Prognoz: Villash-Boash naydet upravu na Mussu Dembele v Kubke France CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHA