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UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg

3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match 06.08.2026 17:45 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

06.08.2026 17:45 UTC 3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match

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UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg

PAOK - Anderlecht

Football

Stadium Tumba (Saloniki, Greece), vmestimost: 28701

PAOK

- : -

Not started

Anderlecht

PAOK face Anderlecht on August 6, 2026 in the UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg.

Recent form (W-D-L): PAOK 4-0-1, Anderlecht 2-2-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 PAOK — 52%

Pure model vs market (1 · PAOK): model 48% · market 52% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market

1 · PAOK51.8%

X · draw25.5%

2 · Anderlecht22.7%

Model estimate: win PAOK 51.8%, draw 25.5%, win Anderlecht 22.7%. Model favourite — PAOK.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1PAOK (odds2.17) Score 1:0 confidence 50%

• Model backs PAOK 🇬🇷: probability 50% vs 46% on the line (odds 2.17)
• edge over the line +4 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction PAOK - Anderlecht August 6, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: PAOK. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.77 / X 3.65 / 2 4.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1% 4 books

1 52.0%

X 25.7%

2 22.3%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.77 → 1.77

1X2 X 3.65 → 3.65

1X2 P2 4.40 → 4.40

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

UEFA Europa League

League table

PAOK

#56 ptsGP 22-0-05:2

Anderlecht

#94 ptsGP 21-1-04:2

Best price across 13 books

1 1.83 1xBet

X 3.80 Unibet

2 4.90 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

PAOK

W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 2.20 Conceded 1.56 xG 1.45 xGA 1.29 Corners 3.9

Anderlecht

W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.53 Conceded 1.63 xG 1.37 xGA 1.47 Corners 5.5

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

PAOK

Rating 1693 xG 1.66 Win 50%

Anderlecht

Rating 1624 xG 1.12 Win 26%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 18:35 UTC

1 50% ✓ favourite

X 28%

2 22%

Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X + Under 2.5

Per AI data H2H: 1-1

Claude updated03.08.2026 18:40 UTC

1 51% ✓ favourite

X 25%

2 24%

Score2:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:1X (PAOK ne proigraet) pri kefe ot 1.35

AI consensus:1

AI	1	X	2	Score	Total goals	BTTS	Bet
Google AI	50%	28%	22%	1:0	Under 2.5	No	1X + Under 2.5
Claude	51%	25%	24%	2:1	Over 2.5	Yes	1X (PAOK ne proigraet) pri kefe ot 1.35

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center

Stadium Tumba (Saloniki, Greece), vmestimost: 28701

Start 06.08.2026 17:45 UTC

Market 1 53.0% @ 1.77 / X 25.7% @ 3.65 / 2 21.3% @ 4.40

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models PAOK 51%

📐 Math model PAOK 52%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

PAOK - Anderlecht

football, PAOK - Anderlekht, 6 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha PAOK - Anderlekht, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Europa League UEFA 2026/2027, 3-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 1-y match.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

PAOK 52.0% 51.8% market and model agree

Draw 25.7% 25.5% draw risk

Anderlecht 22.3% 22.7%

xG - 1.66 : 1.12

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 51.8% / 25.5% / 22.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,697 / 1,622 PAOK / Anderlecht

RD 186 / 203 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,325-2,069 / 1,216-2,027 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.40 Fonbet · no value · model 22.7%

X 3.65 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.77 Fonbet · no value · model 51.8%

Double chance

12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 74.5%

1X 1.19 Fonbet · no value · model 77.3%

X2 1.97 Fonbet · no value · model 48.2%

Handicap

2 -1 1.55 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.10 Fonbet · line only

2 0 3.00 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.92 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.92 52.1%	1.89 52.9%
yes	1.82 55.0%	1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.23 81.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.25 80.0%
1x	1.19 84.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.19 84.0%
x2	1.87 53.5%	1.90 52.6%	1.97 50.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.32 43.1%
X	2.24 44.6%
	4.92 20.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.74 57.5%
Under 1	2.02 49.5%

Match center

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.8 (Betcity) · X 3.65 (Pari) · 2 4.4 (Pari)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.77	3.65	4.4
Winline	1.77	3.5	4.3
Fonbet	1.77	3.65	4.4
Betcity	1.8	3.6	4
Liga Stavok	1.79	3.55	4.4

Source: ruscore · line comparison

PAOK

W W L W W

2026-07-30 UEFA Europa League 26/27, Qualification

PAOK PAOK 2:0 Dynamo Kiev

2026-07-23 UEFA Europa League 26/27, Qualification

PAOK Dynamo Kiev 2:3 PAOK

2026-07-11 Club Friendly Games 2026

PAOK PAOK 2:3 Twente

2026-07-07 Club Friendly Games 2026

PAOK PAOK 3:2 AEK Larnaca

2026-07-04 Club Friendly Games 2026

PAOK PAOK 4:0 Vesterlo

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

Anderlecht

W D W D L

2026-07-30 UEFA Europa League 26/27, Qualification

Anderlecht 3:1 Hammarby Anderlecht

2026-07-23 UEFA Europa League 26/27, Qualification

Hammarby 1:1 Anderlecht Anderlecht

2026-07-11 Club Friendly Games 2026

Anderlecht 3:2 NEC Nijmegen Anderlecht

2026-07-04 Club Friendly Games 2026

Anderlecht 0:0 Boulogne Anderlecht

2026-05-24 Pro League 25/26, Championship Round

Union Saint-Gilloise 5:1 Anderlecht Anderlecht

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyPAOK - Anderlecht

PAOK

0 matches total

Anderlecht

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 PAOK

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Anderlecht

2 Games 2

2 Wins 1

0 Draws 1

0 Losses 0

5 Scored 4

2 Conceded 2

6 Points 4

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

13 Shots on goal 13.5

6.5 Udary v stvor 5

2 Games 2

2 Wins 1

0 Draws 1

0 Losses 0

5 Scored 4

2 Conceded 2

PAOK Anderlekht 2 Games 2 Wins 1 0 Draws 1 0 Losses 0 5 Scored 4 2 Conceded 2 6 Points 4 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 13 Shots on goal 13.5 6.5 Udary v stvor 5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 1.5 Uglovye 6 2.5 Offsaydy 2.5 12.5 Foly 12.5 44.5 % vladeniya myachom 52 2 Warnings 2 0 Sendoffs 0.5 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Alessio Lishi Alessio Lishi Glavnye trenery Vitor Brunu Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 58% 25% 17% Double chance 42% 37% 21% Materialy po prognozam «Ayaks» — PAOK. Prognoz: gollandtsy ne stanut tyanut rezinu PAOK — «Ayaks». Prognoz: amsterdamtsev zhdet nastoyaschee ispytanie «Benfika» pokazhet «Spartaku», kak nuzhno bylo obygryvat PAOK «Spartak» pokromsaet PAOK na grecheskiy salat and proydet dalshe «Spartak» sdelaet vyvody iz oshibok «Bazelya» v matchakh s PAOKom PAOK sdelaet pervyy shag navstrechu «Spartaku» V osade — 2: CSKA vnov budet otbivatsya v Shveytsarii «MYu» v matche s CSKA ne povtorit oshibok «Liverpulya» Start Ligi chempionov: stavim na goly v Barselone and foly v Lissabone «Manchester Yunayted» zhdet rutina, «Beshiktash» — podvig CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_132143