UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg
Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik
Thun meet Vikingur Reykjavik on August 6, 2026 in the UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying round. First leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): Thun 1-2-2, Vikingur Reykjavik 2-1-2. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Thun — 66%
Pure model vs market (1 · Thun): model 52% · market 67% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Thun 66.4%, draw 19.3%, win Vikingur Reykjavik 14.3%. Model favourite — Thun.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Tun 🇨🇭: probability 50% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.05)
- • legkiy pereves +1 pp nad liniey
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik August 6, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.40 / X 4.90 / 2 6.50
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
UEFA Europa LeagueHighest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
AI consensus:1
| AI | 1 | X | 2 | Score | Total goals | BTTS | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google AI | 48% | 27% | 25% | 2:1 | Over 2.5 | Yes | Total Over 2.5 |
| Claude | 53% | 25% | 22% | 1:0 | Under 3.5 | No | Double chance 1X (Tun ne proigraet) — orientir 78% |
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Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.30 43.5% | 2.24 44.6% |
| yes | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.14 87.7% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.16 86.2% |
| 1x | 1.06 94.3% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.10 90.9% |
| x2 | 2.80 35.7% | 2.85 35.1% | 2.85 35.1% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.82 55.0% | |
| X | 2.78 36.0% |
| 5.90 17.0% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.03 49.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.73 57.8% |
Odds · 3 bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.4 | 4.9 | 6.5 |
| Winline | 1.4 | 4.7 | 6.4 |
| Betcity | 1.37 | 4.8 | 7 |
Thun
Vikingur Reykjavik
Full head-to-head historyThun - Vikingur Reykjavik
Match history
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The Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form