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UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg

29.07.2026 16:00 UTC

Not started

UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg

CSKA Sofia - Qarabag

Football

CSKA Sofia

- : -

Not started

Qarabag

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 CSKA Sofia — 37%

Pure model vs market (1 · CSKA Sofia): model 49% · market 37% Δ +12 pp model estimates above the market

1 · CSKA Sofia37.3%

X · draw28.1%

2 · Qarabag34.6%

Model estimate: win CSKA Sofia 37.3%, draw 28.1%, win Qarabag 34.6%. Model favourite — CSKA Sofia.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.28) Score 1:1 Under 2.5 (odds1.70) confidence 50%

• Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 30% on the line (odds 3.28)
• edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 1.70).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction CSKA Sofia - Qarabag July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: CSKA Sofia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.55 / X 3.30 / 2 2.70

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%

1 36.8%

X 28.4%

2 34.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 2.55 → 2.55

1X2 X 3.30 → 3.30

1X2 P2 2.70 → 2.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 16:00 UTC

Match center

CSKA Sofia - Qarabag

Form 3/3 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

CSKA Sofia 36.5% 37.3% market and model agree

Draw 28.5% 28.1% draw risk

Qarabag 35.0% 34.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 37.3% / 28.1% / 34.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,594 / 1,501 CSKA Sofia / Qarabag

RD 206 / 197 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,182-2,007 / 1,107-1,896 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.70 Fonbet · no value · model 34.6%

X 3.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.55 Fonbet · no value · model 37.3%

Double chance

12 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 71.9%

1X 1.45 Fonbet · no value · model 65.4%

X2 1.48 Fonbet · no value · model 62.7%

Handicap

2 -1 1.16 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 4.50 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.90 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 4.30 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.90 52.6%	1.88 53.2%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%
1x	1.49 67.1%	1.45 69.0%
x2	1.42 70.4%	1.48 67.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	3.29 30.4%
X	2.07 48.3%
	3.42 29.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	2.00 50.0%
Under 1	1.75 57.1%

Match center

CSKA Sofia

D L W

23.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

CSKA Sofia 0:0 Karabakh 🇦🇿

16.07 15:30 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

CSKA Sofia 0:1 Derri Siti (Sir)

09.07 16:00 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

CSKA Sofia 3:2 Derri Siti (Sir)

1 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

4 Points

Qarabag

D W W

23.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

Qarabag 0:0 TsSKA Sofiya 🇧🇴

16.07 18:00 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

Qarabag 3:0 Vestri 🇮🇸

09.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

Qarabag 3:0 Vestri 🇮🇸

2 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.0 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCSKA Sofia - Qarabag

CSKA Sofia

1 matches total

Qarabag

CSKA Sofia: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Qarabag: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (23.07 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Europa League - Qualifying

TsSKA Sofiya 🇧🇴

0:0

Karabakh 🇦🇿