Ajax face Shelbourne on August 6, 2026 in the Turkey. Superleague.
Recent form (W-D-L): Ajax 5-0-0, Shelbourne 1-2-2. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1Ajax — 84%
Pure model vs market (1 · Ajax): model 48% · market 86%Δ −38 ppmodel estimates below the market
84%1
1 · Ajax ✓ Pick83.8%
market86%
X · draw11.1%
market10%
2 · Shelbourne5.1%
market4%
Model estimate: win Ajax 83.8%, draw 11.1%, win Shelbourne 5.1%. Model favourite — Ajax.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Ajax (odds2.21)Score 1:0confidence 50%
•Model backs Ayaks 🇳🇱: probability 50% vs 45% on the line (odds 2.21)
•edge over the line +5 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Ajax - Shelbourne August 6, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.3%
4 books · best price +1.9%
1 ✓ Pick86.1%
23.7%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P11.08→ 1.08
1X2 X8.00→ 8.00
1X2 P224.00→ 24.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated03.08.2026 19:04 UTC
153%✓ favourite
X26%
221%
Score2:0Total goals: Under 3.5BTTS:NoBet:Win Ayaksa and Under 3.5
Per AI dataH2H: 0-0
Claudeupdated03.08.2026 19:08 UTC
183%✓ favourite
X12%
25%
Score2:0Total goals: Over 2.5BTTS:NoBet:ITB Ayaksa 1.5 (Ayaks zabet 2+ gola)
AI consensus:1
AI
1
X
2
Score
Total goals
BTTS
Bet
Google AI
53%
26%
21%
2:0
Under 3.5
No
Win Ayaksa and Under 3.5
Claude
83%
12%
5%
2:0
Over 2.5
No
ITB Ayaksa 1.5 (Ayaks zabet 2+ gola)
Buy the full AI analysis
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Match center
Start06.08.2026 18:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI modelsAjax 68%
📐 Math modelAjax 84%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Ajax - Shelbourne
Form5/5
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market3
model / bookmakers
SportsMolepreview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscorecontext
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Ajax86.1%83.8%market and model agree
Draw10.2%11.1%draw risk
Shelbourne3.7%5.1%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P283.8% / 11.1% / 5.1%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,663 / 1,529
Panathinaikos / Shelbourne
RD154 / 253
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,355-1,971 / 1,022-2,035
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X8.00
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.08
Fonbet · no value · model 83.8%
Double chance
121.05
Fonbet · no value · model 88.9%
X26.40
Fonbet · no value · model 16.2%
Total
Over 2.51.28
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.53.35
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.50
Fonbet · line only
Yes2.40
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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