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Turkey. Superleague
Turkey. Superleague
30.07.2026 15:00 UTC
30.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Not started

Turkey. Superleague

Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί - Excelsior Virton

Football
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
- : -
Not started
Excelsior Virton
Excelsior Virton
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model Β· comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί β€” 75%

Pure model vs market (1 Β· Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί): model 61% Β· market 76% Ξ” βˆ’15 pp model estimates below the market

1 Β· Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί ✓ Pick75.5%
market76%
X Β· draw15.5%
market15%
2 Β· Excelsior Virton9.0%
market9%

Model estimate: win Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί 75.5%, draw 15.5%, win Excelsior Virton 9.0%. Model favourite β€” Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί (odds1.22) Score 2:0 Under 3.5 (odds1.70) confidence 61%
  • • Model backs Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί: probability 61% vs 82% on the line (odds 1.22)
  • • no edge over the line (-21 pp) β€” informational only
  • • Expected score 2:0
  • • Total: Under 3.5: model expects a total of ~2 goals
  • • at line 3.5 (odds 1.70).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί - Excelsior Virton July 30, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.22 / X 6.00 / 2 10.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 ✓ Pick 75.8%
X 15.4%
2 8.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line β€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.23 ↓ 1.22
1X2 X 5.80 ↑ 6.00
1X2 P2 10.50 β†’ 10.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Match center

Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί - Excelsior Virton

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement
More needed
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί 76.4% 75.5% market and model agree
Draw 15.3% 15.5% draw risk
Excelsior Virton 8.3% 9.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 75.5% / 15.5% / 9.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,728 / 1,376 Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί / Excelsior Virton
RD 224 / 191 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,280-2,176 / 993-1,759 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 6.00 Fonbet Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.22 Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 75.5%
Double chance
12 1.09 Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 84.5%
1X 1.01 Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 91.0%
X2 3.85 Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 24.5%
Handicap
2 -1 3.15 Fonbet Β· line only
1 -1 1.30 Fonbet Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.38 Fonbet Β· line only
Under 2.5 2.80 Fonbet Β· line only
Both teams to score
No 1.88 Fonbet Β· line only
Yes 1.87 Fonbet Β· line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.88 53.2% 1.81 55.3%
yes 1.87 53.5% 1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.10 90.9% 1.09 91.7% 1.09 91.7%
1x 1.02 98.0% — 1.01 99.0%
x2 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 3.85 26.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.56 64.1%
X 3.00 33.3%
9.40 10.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.94 51.6%
Under 1.5 1.80 55.6%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 8.0 gls
2026-07-21 Β· Der 6:2 Atert Bissen
Source: ruscore

Odds Β· 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.31 (Winline) Β· X 6.1 (Betcity) Β· 2 12 (Betcity)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.23 5.8 10.5
Winline 1.31 5.4 10
Fonbet 1.23 5.8 10.5
Betcity 1.2 6.1 12
Liga Stavok 1.3 5.2 9.6
Source: ruscore Β· line comparison
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
W
21.07 16:15 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί 6:2 Bissen (Lyuk)Bissen (Lyuk)
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
6.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Excelsior Virton
L
21.07 16:15 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying
Excelsior Virton 2:6 Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡ΊDer πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
6.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyDer πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί - Excelsior Virton

Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
1 matches total
Excelsior Virton
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Excelsior Virton: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί 6:2 (21.07 16:15 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 8 goals (6:2, 21.07 16:15 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw β€” draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

6 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 6

Match history

21.07 16:15 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying
Der πŸ‡­πŸ‡Ί
6:2
Bissen (Lyuk)