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Turkey. Superleague

2-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 2-y match 28.07.2026 15:00 UTC

28.07.2026 15:00 UTC 2-y kvalifikatsionnyy raund. 2-y match

Not started

Turkey. Superleague

FK Riga 🇱🇻 - Vardar (Mak)

Football

Stadium Skonto (Riga, Latvia), vmestimost: 8207

FK Riga 🇱🇻

- : -

Not started

Vardar (Mak)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 FK Riga 🇱🇻 — 67%

Pure model vs market (1 · FK Riga 🇱🇻): model 50% · market 69% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market

1 · FK Riga 🇱🇻 ✓ Pick67.2%

market69%

X · draw19.2%

market19%

2 · Vardar (Mak)13.6%

market13%

Model estimate: win FK Riga 🇱🇻 67.2%, draw 19.2%, win Vardar (Mak) 13.6%. Model favourite — FK Riga 🇱🇻.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1FK Riga 🇱🇻 (odds1.28) Score 2:1 Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds1.83) confidence 54%

• Model backs FK Riga 🇱🇻: probability 54% vs 78% on the line (odds 1.28)
• no edge over the line (-24 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 2:1
• Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 2:1 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 1.83).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FK Riga 🇱🇻 - Vardar (Mak) July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: FK Riga 🇱🇻. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.35 / X 5.00 / 2 7.30

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.8%

1 ✓ Pick 68.7%

X 18.6%

2 12.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.30 ↑ 1.35

1X2 X 5.10 ↓ 4.80

1X2 P2 9.00 ↓ 7.30

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

FK Riga 🇱🇻 2 : 1 Vardar (Mak)

11.39

X4.75

26.97

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions

487 predictions Choose an outcome

1 74% 83

X 14% 16

2 11% 13

Double chance X2 2.98 (11) - 12 1.15 (1)

Both teams to score BTTS yes 1.69 (110) - BTTS no 2.02 (6)

Total TB 3.5 2.28 (36) - TM 2.5 2.38 (14) - TB 2.5 1.46 (14)

handicap1 handicap1:-1_5 2.02 (33) - handicap2:1_5 1.73 (24) - handicap2:1 2.23 (10)

Match center

Stadium Skonto (Riga, Latvia), vmestimost: 8207

Start 28.07.2026 15:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

👥 Community FK Riga 🇱🇻 74%

📐 Math model FK Riga 🇱🇻 67%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

FK Riga 🇱🇻 - Vardar (Mak)

Football, Riga - Vardar, 28 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Riga - Vardar, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Conference League UEFA 2026/2027, 2 qualifying round. 2 match.

Form 1/1 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Line 1 source Stavka.tv

Player opinions LiveResult 101 - Stavka.tv 11 combined layer without duplicates

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FK Riga 🇱🇻 68.3% 67.2% market and model agree

Draw 19.0% 19.2% draw risk

Vardar (Mak) 12.7% 13.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 67.2% / 19.2% / 13.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,622 / 1,501 FK Riga 🇱🇻 / Vardar (Mak)

RD 225 / 215 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,171-2,072 / 1,070-1,932 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.30 Fonbet · no value · model 13.6%

X 5.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 67.2%

Double chance

12 1.13 Fonbet · no value · model 80.8%

1X 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 86.4%

X2 2.95 Fonbet · no value · model 32.8%

Handicap

2 -1 2.35 Fonbet · line only

2 0 5.50 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.53 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.11 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.50 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.05 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	2.05 48.8%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.72 58.1%	1.78 56.2%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.15 87.0%	1.13 88.5%	1.13 88.5%
1x	1.07 93.5%	1.07 93.5%	1.06 94.3%
x2	3.00 33.3%	2.90 34.5%	2.95 33.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.82 55.0%
X	2.63 38.0%
	6.60 15.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	2.15 46.5%
Under 1.5	1.65 60.6%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 5.0 gls

2026-07-22 · Riga 3:2 Vardar

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.42 (Winline) · X 5 (Betcity) · 2 8 (Pari)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	1.33	4.9	8
Winline	1.42	4.7	7.4
Fonbet	1.33	4.9	8
Betcity	1.34	5	7.4
Liga Stavok	1.41	4.6	7.2

Source: ruscore · line comparison

FK Riga 🇱🇻

22.07 16:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

FK Riga 🇱🇻 3:2 Vardar (Mak)

1 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

3.0 Scored

2.0 Conceded

3 Points

Vardar (Mak)

22.07 16:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Vardar (Mak) 2:3 FK Riga 🇱🇻

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

3.0 Conceded

0 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFK Riga 🇱🇻 - Vardar (Mak)

FK Riga 🇱🇻

1 matches total

Vardar (Mak)

FK Riga 🇱🇻: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Vardar (Mak): 0 (0%)

Biggest win FK Riga 🇱🇻 3:2 (22.07 16:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 22.07 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

22.07 16:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

FK Riga 🇱🇻

3:2

Vardar (Mak)

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 FK Riga 🇱🇻

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Vardar (Mak)

1 Games 1

1 Wins 0

0 Draws 0

0 Losses 1

3 Scored 2

2 Conceded 3

3 Points 0

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

14 Shots on goal 14

7 Udary v stvor 3

1 Games 1

1 Wins 0

0 Draws 0

0 Losses 1

3 Scored 2

2 Conceded 3

Riga Vardar 1 Games 1 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 1 3 Scored 2 Conceded 3 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 14 Shots on goal 14 7 Udary v stvor 3 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3 Uglovye 2 Offsaydy 0 27 Foly 17 47 % vladeniya myachom 53 4 Warnings 2 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Adrian Gulya Glavnye trenery Kristian Fabbiani Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 55% 27% 18% Double chance 41% 36% 23% Materialy po prognozam Antitrend. Zhdem rezultativnosti ot «Loko» and zakrytogo futbola ot «Zenita» CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1317850' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');