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Turkey. Superleague

29.07.2026 14:00 UTC

Not started

Turkey. Superleague

Zirya 🇦🇿 - Payde 🇪🇪

Football

Zirya 🇦🇿

- : -

Not started

Payde 🇪🇪

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Zirya 🇦🇿 — 48%

1 · Zirya 🇦🇿47.9%

X · draw21.1%

2 · Payde 🇪🇪31.0%

Model estimate: win Zirya 🇦🇿 47.9%, draw 21.1%, win Payde 🇪🇪 31.0%. Model favourite — Zirya 🇦🇿.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Zirya 🇦🇿 (odds1.20) Score 1:0 Under 2.5 (odds2.05) Handicap H2 +1.5 (odds2.10) confidence 50%

• Model backs Zirya 🇦🇿: probability 50% vs 83% on the line (odds 1.20)
• no edge over the line (-33 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 1:0
• Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
• at line 2.5 (odds 2.05)
• Handicap F2 +1.5: score forecast 1:0 (diff +1) covers the line (odds 2.10).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Zirya 🇦🇿 - Payde 🇪🇪 July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Zirya 🇦🇿. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.20 / X 5.70 / 2 12.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9%

1 76.5%

X 16.1%

2 7.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.20 → 1.20

1X2 X 5.70 → 5.70

1X2 P2 12.50 → 12.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 14:00 UTC

Match center

Zirya 🇦🇿 - Payde 🇪🇪

Form 3/3 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement

More needed

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Zirya 🇦🇿 76.5% 47.9% market and model agree

Draw 16.1% 21.1% draw risk

Payde 🇪🇪 7.4% 31.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 47.9% / 21.1% / 31.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,674 / 1,745 Zirya 🇦🇿 / Payde 🇪🇪

RD 226 / 219 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,221-2,126 / 1,307-2,184 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 5.70 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 47.9%

Double chance

12 1.10 Fonbet · no value · model 78.9%

X2 4.05 Fonbet · weak value +110.9% · model 52.1%

Handicap

2 -1 3.10 Fonbet · line only

2 0 8.50 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1 0 1.04 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Yes 2.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.47 68.0%	1.49 67.1%
yes	2.50 40.0%	2.51 39.8%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%
x2	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%	4.05 24.7%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	1.61 62.1%
X	2.67 37.5%
	11.90 8.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.59 62.9%
Under 1	2.27 44.1%

Match center

Zirya 🇦🇿

L W W

23.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Zirya 🇦🇿 0:1 Payde 🇪🇪

16.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Zirya 🇦🇿 3:0 Torpedo Kutaisi 🇬🇪

08.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Zirya 🇦🇿 3:0 Torpedo Kutaisi 🇬🇪

2 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.3 Conceded

6 Points

Payde 🇪🇪

W W D

23.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Payde 🇪🇪 1:0 Zirya 🇦🇿

16.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Payde 🇪🇪 3:0 Khegelmann 🇱🇹

09.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Payde 🇪🇪 1:1 Khegelmann 🇱🇹

2 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.7 Scored

0.3 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyZirya 🇦🇿 - Payde 🇪🇪

Zirya 🇦🇿

1 matches total

Payde 🇪🇪

Zirya 🇦🇿: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Payde 🇪🇪: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Payde 🇪🇪 0:1 (23.07 14:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 23.07 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Conference League - Qualifying

Zirya 🇦🇿

0:1

Payde 🇪🇪