Match center
Start
04.04.2026 19:00 UTC
04.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished
FA Cup
Southampton - Arsenal
2
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Southampton - Arsenal 4 апреля 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arsenal.
Line favourite market consensus: Arsenal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 11.12 / X 5.93 / 2 1.24
- 1X2 market: Southampton 8.6% / X 15.9% / Arsenal 75.6%
- Glicko: Southampton - / X 100.0% / Arsenal -
- Total 2.5: over probability 78.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.5%
1
8.4%
X
15.8%
2
75.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.8%
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
Лидер исходов AI: Х
Main outcome
Х
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
66.6%
Total
ТБ 2.5
Score
2:2
Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.
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Match center
Southampton - Arsenal
Southampton: Победа 6.50 Southampton: Ничья 5.00 Arsenal Победа: 1.42 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 1.57 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 2.38 Индивидуальный тотал голов Southampton больше 0.5: 1.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Southampton меньше 0.5: 2.20 Индивидуальный тотал голов …
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:1
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
21
min
Event
Player
Team
27'
27' Yellow Card | R. Manning
George Hakopian
Southampton
35'
35' Normal Goal | R. Stewart
Southampton
60'
60' Substitution 4 | M. Lewis-Skelly | assist/sub out: R. Calafiori
Arsenal
60'
60' Substitution 3 | Gabriel Jesus | assist/sub out: V. Gyökeres
Evanilson
Arsenal
61'
61' Substitution 6 | M. Odegaard | assist/sub out: N. Madueke
Arsenal
68'
68' Normal Goal
Arsenal
70'
70' Substitution 3 | R. Stewart | assist/sub out: C. Larin
Southampton
71'
71' Substitution 6 | L. Scienza | assist/sub out: S. Edozie
Southampton
Metric
Southampton
Arsenal
SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG)
0.8
2.1
final
Заблокированные удары
1
10
final
Удары мимо
3
6
final
Удары в створ
4
7
final
Удары всего
8
23
final
Фолы совершено
9
11
final
Желтые карточки
2
1
final
Офсайды
0
0
final
Southampton
#13 L. Scienza, #41 D. Peretz
Arsenal
#3 C. Mosquera, #4 B. White, #6 Gabriel, #8 M. Odegaard, #9 Gabriel Jesus, #11 G. Martinelli, #13 Kepa Arrizabalaga, #16 C. Nørgaard, #29 K. Havertz, #49 Myles Lewis-Skelly, #56 Max Dowman
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Annous
Arsenal
Сейвы
0
B. White
Arsenal
football.player.assists
0
B. White
Arsenal
Дриблинг попытки
1
B. White
Arsenal
Единоборства всего
1
B. White
Arsenal
Единоборства выиграно
7
B. White
Arsenal
Сейвы
0
B. White
Arsenal
football.player.minutes_played
90
B. White
Arsenal
Точность пасов %
3
B. White
Arsenal
Ключевые пасы
63
B. White
Arsenal
Рейтинг (старый)
5.7
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Southampton
7.7%
-
Draw
14.8%
100.0%
draw risk
Arsenal
77.5%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 78.6%
-
Under 21.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.85
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.85
Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.
Football math model
Rating
1,993 / 1,992
Southampton / Arsenal
RD
213 / 212
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: value не найден
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.24
market consensus · line only
X
5.93
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
9.38
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.04
market consensus · line only
12
1.12
market consensus · line only
1X
3.85
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 +0.5
1.23
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.33
market consensus · line only
1 +0.5
3.88
market consensus · line only
1 +1
3.14
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.48
market consensus · value +16.3% · model 78.6%
Under 2.5
2.55
market consensus · no value · model 21.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.79
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.95
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| П1 | 12.50 8.0% | 10.00 10.0% | 12.50 8.0% | 11.00 9.1% | 11.00 9.1% | 12.00 8.3% |
| Х | 5.60 17.9% | 6.10 16.4% | 6.32 15.8% | 5.75 17.4% | 6.00 16.7% | 5.90 17.0% |
| П2 | 1.23 81.3% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.26 79.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.79 55.9% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.77 56.5% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.94 51.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.04 96.2% | 1.04 96.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.03 97.1% |
| home_away | 1.12 89.3% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.10 90.9% |
| home_draw | 3.90 25.6% | 4.02 24.9% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.75 26.7% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.00 25.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| ТБ 0.5 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| ТБ 1.0 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| ТБ 1.5 | 1.17 85.5% | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| ТБ 1.75 | — | — | 1.13 88.5% |
| ТБ 2.0 | — | — | 1.16 86.2% |
| ТБ 2.25 | — | — | 1.32 75.8% |
| ТБ 2.5 | 1.50 66.7% | — | — |
| ТБ 3.0 | — | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| ТБ 3.5 | 2.25 44.4% | — | — |
| ТБ 4.5 | 3.80 26.3% | — | — |
| ТБ 5.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — | — |
| ТМ 1.5 | 5.00 20.0% | — | — |
| ТМ 2.5 | 2.55 39.2% | — | — |
| ТМ 3.0 | — | 2.06 48.5% | — |
| ТМ 3.5 | 1.62 61.7% | — | — |
| ТМ 4.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | — |
| ТМ 5.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — | — |
Match center
Southampton
Founded
1885
Arsenal
Founded
1886
Match center
Full head-to-head historySouthampton - Arsenal
Southampton
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.