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Finland. Superleague
Finland. Superleague
01.08.2026 14:00 UTC
01.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Not started

Finland. Superleague

AC Oulu - Ilves

Football
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
- : -
Not started
Ilves
Ilves
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 AC Oulu — 41%

Pure model vs market (1 · AC Oulu): model 43% · market 41% Δ +2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · AC Oulu41.2%
X · draw27.3%
2 · Ilves31.5%

Model estimate: win AC Oulu 41.2%, draw 27.3%, win Ilves 31.5%. Model favourite — AC Oulu.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.41) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.41)
  • • edge over the line +21 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AC Oulu - Ilves August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: AC Oulu. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.29 / X 3.49 / 2 3.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 41.3%
X 27.1%
2 31.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Veikkausliiga
League table
AC Oulu
#627 ptsGP 178-3-621:21
ARRAY
Ilves
#922 ptsGP 176-4-729:30
ARRAY
Best price across 13 books
1 2.45 Betano
X 3.55 Dafabet
2 2.98 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
AC Oulu
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 0.90 Conceded 1.41 xG 1.58 xGA 1.20 Corners 6.8
Ilves
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.90 Conceded 1.70 xG 1.53 xGA 1.38 Corners 4.4

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
AC Oulu
Rating 1525 xG 1.21 Win 33%
Ilves
Rating 1558 xG 1.35 Win 40%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 14:00 UTC
Market 1 41.3% @ 2.29 / X 27.1% @ 3.49 / 2 31.5% @ 3.00
Match center

AC Oulu - Ilves

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
AC Oulu 41.1% 41.2% market and model agree
Draw 27.6% 27.3% draw risk
Ilves 31.4% 31.5%
xG - 1.21 : 1.35

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.2% / 27.3% / 31.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,320 / 1,350 Oulu / Ilves
RD 183 / 169 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 954-1,687 / 1,012-1,689 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.92 market consensus · no value · model 31.5%
X 3.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.27 market consensus · no value · model 41.2%
Double chance
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 68.5%
X2 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 58.8%
Handicap
2 0 2.12 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.66 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.27 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.57 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.27 44.1%
yes 1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5%
1x 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5%
x2 1.55 64.5% 1.59 62.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.91 34.4%
X 2.27 44.1%
3.51 28.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.64 61.0%
Under 1 2.17 46.1%
Match center
AC Oulu
D L L D W
25.07 11:30 UTC Finland: Premier League Standings
AC Oulu 1:1 Mariekhamn
18.07 12:00 UTC Finland: Premier League Standings
AC Oulu 0:2 GnistanGnistan
11.07 12:00 UTC Finland: Premier League Standings
AC Oulu 0:3 TPS
13.06 10:00 UTC Finland: Premier League Standings
AC Oulu 0:0 Inter TurkuInter Turku
31.05 11:00 UTC Finland: Premier League Standings
AC Oulu 2:1 YaroYaro
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
5 Points
Ilves
W W L L W
26.07 10:00 UTC+0 Finland: Premier League Standings
Ilves 1:0 Lakhti
20.07 13:00 UTC+0 Finland: Premier League Standings
Ilves 3:1 TPS
04.07 12:00 UTC+0 Finland: Premier League Standings
Ilves 1:2 YaroYaro
01.07 14:00 UTC+0 Finland: Cup Finlyandii
Ilves 1:2 KhIKKhIK
13.06 10:00 UTC+0 Finland: Premier League Standings
Ilves 1:0 TPS
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAC Oulu - Ilves

AC Oulu
0 matches total
Ilves
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history