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First League
First League Bulgaria
04.04.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished

First League

Bulgaria

Arda Kardzhali - Montana

Bulgaria Football
Stadium Arena Arda
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
2 : 1
Finished
Montana
Montana

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Arda Kardzhali - Montana April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Arda Kardzhali.

Line favourite market consensus: Arda Kardzhali. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.34 / X 4.41 / 2 8.93
  • 1X2 market: Arda Kardzhali 68.8% / X 20.9% / Montana 10.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.5%
1 68.8%
X 20.9%
2 10.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 48.7%
Under 2.5 51.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Match center

Arda Kardzhali - Montana

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.93 market consensus · line only
X 4.41 market consensus · line only
1 1.34 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.03 market consensus · line only
12 1.18 market consensus · line only
1X 1.05 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.94 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.35 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.39 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.55 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.29 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
1.28 78.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
X 4.55 22.0% 4.60 21.7% 4.33 23.1% 4.35 23.0% 4.33 23.1% 4.60 21.7%
8.30 12.1% 9.10 11.0% 10.00 10.0% 9.25 10.8% 8.50 11.8% 9.10 11.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.45 69.0% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.58 63.3% 1.57 63.7%
yes 2.62 38.2% 2.26 44.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.26 44.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Unibet
draw_away 3.08 32.5% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.08 32.5% 2.48 40.3%
home_away 1.16 86.2% 1.20 83.3% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.03 97.1% 1.06 94.3% 1.08 92.6% 1.05 95.2% 1.03 97.1% 1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.0 — 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.25 1.73 57.8% 1.65 60.6%
Over 2.5 — 1.90 52.6%
Over 2.75 — 2.10 47.6%
Over 3.0 — 2.52 39.7%
Over 3.25 — 2.81 35.6%
Over 3.5 — 3.08 32.5%
Over 3.75 — 3.80 26.3%
Over 4.0 — 5.10 19.6%
Over 4.25 — 5.45 18.4%
Under 2.25 2.05 48.8% —
Match center

Full head-to-head historyArda Kardzhali - Montana

Arda Kardzhali
0 matches total
Montana
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history