Match center
Start
05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
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05.04.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished
First League
Cherno More Varna - Slavia Sofia
1
:
3
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Cherno More Varna — 52%
Model estimate: win Cherno More Varna 51.8%, draw 27.0%, win Slavia Sofia 21.2%. Model favourite — Cherno More Varna.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Cherno More Varna - Slavia Sofia April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cherno More Varna.
Strongest: Cherno More Varna - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.64 / X 3.45 / 2 5.17
- 1X2 market: Cherno More Varna 55.7% / X 26.5% / Slavia Sofia 17.8%
- Glicko: Cherno More Varna 51.8% / X 27.0% / Slavia Sofia 21.2%
- Total 2.5: over probability 10.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.3%
1
55.8%
X
26.5%
2
17.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
54.4%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:0
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Cherno More Varna 52%
💹 Market
Cherno More Varna 5574%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Cherno More Varna - Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna: Win 1.62 Cherno More Varna: Draw 3.50 Slavia Sofia Win: 5.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Cherno More Varna bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Cherno More Varna menshe 1.5: 1.8…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:3
Events
19
Statistics
26
Lineups
17
min
Event
Player
Team
11'
11' Normal Goal | I. Stefanov
Jansen Miller
Slavia Sofia
42'
42' Yellow Card | V. Drobarov
Cherno More Varna
46'
46' Substitution 1 | A. Calcan | assist/sub out: N. Zlatev
Cherno More Varna
53'
53' Yellow Card | I. Stefanov
Jansen Miller
Slavia Sofia
54'
54' Yellow Card | E. Tombak
Carlos Junior
Cherno More Varna
56'
56' Penalty | Y. Guermouche
Slavia Sofia
61'
61' Substitution 2 | K. Balov | assist/sub out: V. Kazaldzhiev
Slavia Sofia
63'
63' Yellow Card | D. Malembana
Slavia Sofia
Metric
Cherno More Varna
Slavia Sofia
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.87
1.67
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
0
final
Shots off target
9
2
final
Shots on target
6
6
final
Udary vsego
17
8
final
Fouls soversheno
13
7
final
Red cards
0
0
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
3
final
Cherno More Varna
#3 Z. Atanasov, #10 A. Chandarov, #15 D. Martin, #19 G. Lazarov, #23 D. Tonev, #28 V. Drobarov, #71 V. Panayotov, #77 C. Sidney, #81 K. Tomov
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
football.player.assists
0
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Dribling popytki
5
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Dribling uspeshno
1
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Edinoborstva vsego
4
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Edinoborstva vyigrano
15
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Fouls soversheno
1
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Fouls na igroke
0
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
football.player.goals
0
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Conceded golov
0
A. Chandarov
Cherno More Varna
Seyvy
0
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Cherno More Varna
56.4%
51.8%
market and model agree
Draw
26.5%
27.0%
draw risk
Slavia Sofia
17.1%
21.2%
xG
-
1.44 : 0.81
Total 2.5
Over 10.6%
-
Under 89.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.05
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.8% / 27.0% / 21.2%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,583 / 1,533
Cherno More Varna / Slavia Sofia
RD
77 / 76
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.17
market consensus · no value · model 21.2%
X
3.45
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.64
market consensus · no value · model 51.8%
Double chance
X2
2.15
market consensus · weak value +3.6% · model 48.2%
12
1.27
market consensus · no value · model 73.1%
1X
1.14
market consensus · no value · model 78.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.20
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.63
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
5.50
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.90
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.18
market consensus · no value · model 10.6%
Under 2.5
1.66
market consensus · value +48.4% · model 89.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.68
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.07
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.60 62.5% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.65 60.6% | |
| X | 3.55 28.2% | 3.54 28.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.54 28.3% |
| 4.70 21.3% | 5.21 19.2% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.25 19.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.66 60.2% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% |
| yes | 2.13 47.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.12 47.2% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.10 47.6% |
| home_away | 1.26 79.4% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.13 88.5% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.15 87.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 1.5 | — | 1.33 75.2% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.42 70.4% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 2.25 | 1.89 52.9% | 1.84 54.4% |
| Over 2.5 | — | 2.16 46.3% |
| Over 2.75 | — | 2.47 40.5% |
| Over 3.0 | — | 3.12 32.1% |
| Over 3.25 | — | 3.46 28.9% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 3.84 26.0% |
| Over 3.75 | — | 4.90 20.4% |
| Over 4.0 | — | 7.10 14.1% |
| Over 4.25 | — | 7.50 13.3% |
| Under 2.25 | 1.89 52.9% | — |
Match center
Cherno More Varna
Founded
1945
Slavia Sofia
Founded
1913
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCherno More Varna - Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Cherno More Varna - Slavia Sofia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form