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First League
First League Bulgaria
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

First League

Bulgaria

Ludogorets - CSKA 1948

Bulgaria Football
Stadium Huvepharma Arena
Capacity 10 422
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
3 : 0
Finished
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Ludogorets — 62%

1 · Ludogorets ✓ Pick62.0%
market60%
X · draw22.0%
market24%
2 · CSKA 194815.9%
market17%

Model estimate: win Ludogorets 62.0%, draw 22.0%, win CSKA 1948 15.9%. Model favourite — Ludogorets.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ludogorets - CSKA 1948 April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ludogorets.

Strongest: Ludogorets - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 3.86 / 2 5.49
  • 1X2 market: Ludogorets 59.6% / X 23.7% / CSKA 1948 16.7%
  • Glicko: Ludogorets 62.0% / X 22.0% / CSKA 1948 15.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 15.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.5%
1 ✓ Pick 59.7%
X 23.7%
2 16.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 53.6%
Under 2.5 46.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 61.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)
Capacity 10,422

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Ludogorets 62%
💹 Market Ludogorets 5959%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Ludogorets - CSKA 1948

Ludogorets: Win 1.45 Ludogorets: Draw 4.20 CSKA 1948 Win: 7.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.08 Individualnyy total golov Ludogorets bolshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Ludogorets menshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov CS…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 14
Statistics 26
Lineups 21
min Event Player Team
33' 33' Yellow Card | P. Vitanov Sheldon CSKA 1948
45' 45' Penalty | K. Duah Ludogorets
46' 46' Substitution 3 | B. Sobrero | assist/sub out: Frederic CSKA 1948
46' 46' Substitution 2 | P. Vitanov | assist/sub out: M. Diallo Sheldon CSKA 1948
49' 49' Yellow Card | M. Diallo CSKA 1948
55' 55' Normal Goal Ludogorets
63' 63' Yellow Card | Pedro Naressi E. Noriega Ludogorets
69' 69' Substitution 4 | Pedro Naressi | assist/sub out: D. Duarte E. Noriega Ludogorets
Metric Ludogorets CSKA 1948 SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.34 0.48 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final
Shots off target 4 2 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 9 8 final
Fouls soversheno 6 12 final
Red cards 0 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Ludogorets #2 J. Andersson, #3 A. Nedyalkov, #4 Dinis Almeida, #14 P. Stanić, #18 I. Chochev, #24 O. Verdon, #26 F. Kaloč, #30 Pedro Naressi, #39 H. Bonmann, #77 Erick Marcus
CSKA 1948 #6 E. Parkhomenko, #22 O. Gašević, #96 D. Grivić
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets football.player.assists 1
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Dribling popytki 3
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Dribling uspeshno 0
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Edinoborstva vsego 3
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Fouls soversheno 0
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Fouls na igroke 0
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets football.player.goals 0
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Conceded golov 0
A. Nedyalkov Ludogorets Seyvy 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ludogorets 60.3% 62.0% market and model agree
Draw 23.5% 22.0% draw risk
CSKA 1948 16.2% 15.9%
xG - 1.86 : 0.82
Total 2.5 Over 15.2% - Under 84.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 62.0% / 22.0% / 15.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,700 / 1,610 Ludogorets / CSKA 1948
RD 82 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.49 market consensus · no value · model 15.9%
X 3.86 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 62.0%
Double chance
X2 2.35 market consensus · no value · model 38.0%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 78.0%
1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 84.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.86 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.75 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · no value · model 15.2%
Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · weak value +72.1% · model 84.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.89 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
1.47 68.0% 1.56 64.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.54 64.9% 1.55 64.5%
X 4.00 25.0% 3.94 25.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.85 26.0% 3.94 25.4% 3.60 27.8%
5.10 19.6% 5.61 17.8% 5.75 17.4% 5.80 17.2% 5.70 17.5% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.88 53.2% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
draw_away 2.33 42.9% 2.38 42.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.33 42.9% 2.25 44.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.15 87.0% 1.11 90.1% 1.15 87.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 — 1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 2.5 — 1.76 56.8%
Over 2.75 1.99 50.3% 1.91 52.4%
Over 3.0 — 2.20 45.5%
Over 3.25 — 2.46 40.7%
Over 3.5 — 2.70 37.0%
Over 3.75 — 3.20 31.3%
Over 4.0 — 4.25 23.5%
Over 4.25 — 4.60 21.7%
Under 2.75 1.79 55.9% —
Match center
Ludogorets
Founded 1945
CSKA 1948
Founded 2016
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLudogorets - CSKA 1948

Ludogorets
0 matches total
CSKA 1948
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.