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Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Group A. 1-y Round 04.08.2026 15:30 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 15:30 UTC Group A. 1-y Round
Not started

Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage

Rodina Moscow - Rubin

Football
Rodina Moscow
Rodina Moscow
- : -
Not started
Rubin
Rubin

Rodina Moscow face Rubin on August 4, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.

Recent form (W-D-L): Rodina Moscow 2-1-2, Rubin 1-3-1. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Rubin — 47%

Pure model vs market (2 · Rubin): model 40% · market 47% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Rodina Moscow28.4%
X · draw25.0%
2 · Rubin46.7%

Model estimate: win Rodina Moscow 28.4%, draw 25.0%, win Rubin 46.7%. Model favourite — Rubin.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Rubin (odds2.02) Score 0:1 Under 2.5 (odds2.00) Handicap H2 +-0 (odds1.50) confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Rubin: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 2.02)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 0:1
  • • Total: Under 2.5: model expects a total of ~1 goals
  • • at line 2.5 (odds 2.00)
  • • Handicap F2 +0: score forecast 0:1 (diff -1) covers the line (odds 1.50).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rodina Moscow - Rubin August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Rubin. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 3.60 / X 3.70 / 2 2.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5% 4 books
1 27.8%
X 25.2%
2 47.1%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 3.50 → 3.50
1X2 X 3.80 → 3.80
1X2 P2 2.00 → 2.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Cup
Best price across 6 books
1 3.42 Marathonbet
X 3.84 Marathonbet
2 2.10 Superbet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Rodina Moscow
W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.87 Conceded 0.64 xG 1.37 xGA 1.03
Rubin
W-D-L 1-4-5 Scored 0.57 Conceded 1.26 xG 1.13 xGA 1.35

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Rodina Moscow 1 : 1 Rubin
13.40
X3.84
22.08

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 17:02 UTC
1 28%
X 25%
2 47% ✓ favourite
Score1:2 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:2
Per AI data H2H: 1-1
Claude updated03.08.2026 15:40 UTC
1 62% ✓ favourite
X 21%
2 17%
Score2:0 Total goals: Under 3.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 3.5 gola (68%, spravedlivyy kef

AI consensus:2

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 28% 25% 47% 1:2 Over 2.5 Yes
Claude 62% 21% 17% 2:0 Under 3.5 No Under 3.5 gola (68%, spravedlivyy kef

Buy the full AI analysis

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Participant opinions
523 predictions Choose an outcome
1 12% 37
X 9% 29
2 77% 229
match_qualify match_qualify:w1 2.25 (3) - match_qualify:w2 1.57 (3)
Double chance 1X 1.82 (52) - X2 1.35 (4) - 12 1.29 (2)
Total TB 2.5 1.78 (86) - TM 2.5 2.06 (8) - TB 3.5 2.83 (4)
total_t1_under total_t2_over:1_5 1.96 (29) - total_t1_over:1_5 2.72 (5) - total_t1_over:1 1.78 (2)
Match center
Start 04.08.2026 15:30 UTC
Market 1 26.5% @ 3.60 / X 25.8% @ 3.70 / 2 47.7% @ 2.00
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Rubin 77%
🤖 7 AI models Rodina Moscow 45%
📐 Math model Rubin 47%
⚡ Humans and machines disagree
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Rodina Moscow - Rubin

football, Rodina - Rubin, 4 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Rodina - Rubin, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Fonbet Cup Russia 2026/2027, Group A. 1-y Round.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions LiveResult 109 - Stavka.tv 186 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rodina Moscow 27.8% 28.4%
Draw 25.1% 25.0% draw risk
Rubin 47.1% 46.7% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.4% / 25.0% / 46.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,311 / 1,446 Rodina Moscow / Rubin
RD 248 / 261 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 815-1,808 / 924-1,968 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.00 Fonbet · no value · model 46.7%
X 3.70 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.60 Fonbet · no value · model 28.4%
Double chance
12 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 75.0%
1X 1.82 Fonbet · no value · model 53.3%
X2 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 71.6%
Handicap
2 -1 1.09 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 2.75 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.50 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 5.80 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9%
1x 1.77 56.5% 1.79 55.9% 1.82 55.0%
x2 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.94 25.4%
X 2.36 42.4%
2.58 38.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.70 58.8%
Under 1 2.16 46.3%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-1-1, avg 1.0 gls
2023-06-03 · Rodina 0:0 Rubin
2022-07-17 · Rodina 0:2 Rubin
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 3.58 (Winline) · X 3.8 (Pari) · 2 2 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 3.5 3.8 2
Winline 3.58 3.8 1.97
Fonbet 3.5 3.8 2
Betcity 3.5 3.7 2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Rodina Moscow
L L D W W
2026-07-31 Premier League 26/27
Rodina Moscow Rodina Moscow 2:4 Rostov
2026-07-25 Premier League 26/27
Rodina Moscow Spartak Moscow 3:0 Rodina Moscow
2026-06-27 Club Friendly Games 2026
Rodina Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0:0 Rodina Moscow
2026-05-16 1. Liga 25/26
Rodina Moscow Arsenal Tula 1:4 Rodina Moscow
2026-05-08 1. Liga 25/26
Rodina Moscow Rodina Moscow 2:0 Chelyabinsk
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Rubin
W L D D D
2026-08-01 Premier League 26/27
Akron Tolyatti 1:2 Rubin Rubin
2026-07-26 Premier League 26/27
Rubin 1:3 Krasnodar Rubin
2026-07-08 Club Friendly Games 2026
Spartak Moscow 0:0 Rubin Rubin
2026-06-26 Club Friendly Games 2026
Rubin 1:1 KAMAZ Rubin
2026-05-17 Premier League 25/26
Rubin 2:2 Nizhny Novgorod Rubin
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRodina Moscow - Rubin

Rodina Moscow
0 matches total
Rubin
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Rodina Moscow
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Rubin
Rodina Moscow Team comparison Rubin
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0

Rodina Rubin 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Khuan Dias Glavnye trenery Frank Artiga 0' «Rubin» poluchit polnuyu summu otstupnykh Eksklyuziv Kak «Spartak» vybiral Daku and chto po dengam? Nashi insaydy o glavnom transfere v RPL 0' Superfinala teper ne budet, a esche est izmeneniya v stadii playoff Cup Russia vozvraschaetsya! Vse o turnire — ot novogo reglamenta do sostava grupp 0' Privetstvuem vsekh lyubiteley futbola! Rady predlozhit vashemu vnimaniyu tekstovuyu onlayn-translyatsiyu matches pervogo tura gruppovogo etapa Kubka Russia — 2026/2027: «Rodina» — «Rubin». Eto soperniki po gruppe A. Nachalo vstrechi zaplanirovano na 18:30 po moskovskomu vremeni. Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 19% 18% 63% Double chance 19% 40% 41% Materialy po prognozam Ne speshite otpravlyat «Rodinu» v Pervuyu ligu Pora vozvraschatsya domoy! Kto vyigraet RPL-2026/2027? Kto stanet luchshim klubom Moskvy v novom sezone RPL? «Lokomotiv» and CSKA v pogo