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Russia: FONBET Cup Russia - Put regionov
Russia: FONBET Cup Russia - Put regionov
29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
Not started

Russia: FONBET Cup Russia - Put regionov

Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie - Tosno

Football
K
Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie
- : -
Not started
T
Tosno
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Tosno — 50%

Pure model vs market (2 · Tosno): model 33% · market 52% Δ −19 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie23.4%
X · draw26.1%
2 · Tosno50.5%

Model estimate: win Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie 23.4%, draw 26.1%, win Tosno 50.5%. Model favourite — Tosno.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Tosno (odds1.79) Score 1:2 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Tosno: probability 50% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.79)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie - Tosno July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Tosno. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.37 / X 3.68 / 2 1.87

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.5%
1 22.1%
X 26.2%
2 51.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
Match center

Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie - Tosno

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie 22.1% 23.4%
Draw 26.3% 26.1% draw risk
Tosno 51.6% 50.5% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 23.4% / 26.1% / 50.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie / Tosno
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 50.5%
X 3.56 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.22 market consensus · no value · model 23.4%
Double chance
12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 73.9%
1X 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%
X2 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 76.6%
Handicap
2 -1 2.47 market consensus · line only
1 +1 1.51 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.95 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.86 53.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.24 80.7% 1.26 79.4%
1x 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6%
x2 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.89 20.5%
X 2.24 44.6%
2.42 41.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.92 52.1%
Under 1 1.89 52.9%