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Fonbet Russian Cup. Path of the regions. First round
Fonbet Russian Cup. Path of the regions. First round
28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Not started

Fonbet Russian Cup. Path of the regions. First round

Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk - Salyut Belgorod

Football
K
Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk
- : -
Not started
S
Salyut Belgorod
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Salyut Belgorod — 57%

Pure model vs market (2 · Salyut Belgorod): model 31% · market 58% Δ −27 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk22.2%
X · draw21.3%
2 · Salyut Belgorod56.6%

Model estimate: win Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk 22.2%, draw 21.3%, win Salyut Belgorod 56.6%. Model favourite — Salyut Belgorod.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Salyut Belgorod (odds1.61) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Salyut Belgorod: probability 50% vs 62% on the line (odds 1.61)
  • • no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk - Salyut Belgorod July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Salyut Belgorod. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.70 / X 4.60 / 2 1.66

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.3%
1 20.6%
X 21.1%
2 58.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk 2 : 1 Salyut Belgorod
14.50
X4.30
21.55

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Participant opinions
437 predictions Choose an outcome
1 5% 3
X 1% 1
2 93% 53
match_qualify match_qualify:w1 2.93 (37) - match_qualify:w2 1.33 (4)
Double chance 1X 2.29 (31) - X2 1.15 (1)
handicap1 handicap2:-1_5 2.24 (74) - handicap2:-1 1.84 (26) - handicap1:1 1.86 (9)
Total TM 3.5 2.13 (23) - TM 4 1.74 (17) - TB 3.5 1.58 (8)
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Salyut Belgorod 93%
📐 Math model Salyut Belgorod 57%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk - Salyut Belgorod

Form 0/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 57 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk 20.6% 22.2%
Draw 21.2% 21.3% draw risk
Salyut Belgorod 58.2% 56.6% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 22.2% / 21.3% / 56.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,449 Kristall MEZ Borisoglebsk / Salyut Belgorod
RD 350 / 239 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 971-1,928 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 56.6%
X 4.45 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.58 market consensus · no value · model 22.2%
Double chance
12 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%
1X 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
X2 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 77.8%
Handicap
2 -1 1.90 market consensus · line only
1 +1 1.91 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.23 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.35 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 3.23 31.0%
yes 1.35 74.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2%
1x 2.15 46.5% 2.30 43.5%
x2 1.16 86.2% 1.16 86.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.48 22.3%
X 2.85 35.1%
2.04 49.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 1.5 2.02 49.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

Kristall MEZ BorisoglebskLWWW
Salyut BelgorodWWWWWLLDLL
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 4.6 (Betcity) · X 4.6 (Betcity) · 2 1.59 (Winline)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 4.3 4.2 1.56
Winline 4.49 4.37 1.59
Fonbet 4.3 4.2 1.56
Betcity 4.6 4.6 1.55
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Salyut Belgorod
W W W L L
25.07 08:00 UTC+0 Russia: Second League - Division B - Group 3 Standings
Salyut Belgorod 3:1 Rodina 3
01.07 11:00 UTC+0 Russia: Second League - Division B - Group 3 Standings
Salyut Belgorod 2:1 Zenit Penza
13.06 02:00 UTC+0 Russia: Second League - Division B - Group 3 Standings
Salyut Belgorod 1:0 SKA-Khabarovsk 2
06.06 12:00 UTC+0 Russia: Second League - Division B - Group 3 Standings
Salyut Belgorod 0:2 Shumbrat Saransk
30.05 15:00 UTC+0 Fonbet football live
Salyut Belgorod 0:1 Spartak Tambov
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points