FC Juticalpa meet Motagua on August 2, 2026 in the Honduras. Liga Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): FC Juticalpa 1-1-3, Motagua 3-2-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 13% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2Motagua — 67%
Pure model vs market (2 · Motagua): model 33% · market 81%Δ −48 ppmodel estimates below the market
67%2
1 · FC Juticalpa13.1%
market10%
X · draw20.0%
market9%
2 · Motagua ✓ Pick66.9%
market81%
Model estimate: win FC Juticalpa 13.1%, draw 20.0%, win Motagua 66.9%. Model favourite — Motagua.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
•Model backs Khutikalpa: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.36)
•edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
•Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction FC Juticalpa - Motagua August 2, 2026
Football math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Motagua.
Line favourite Fonbet: Motagua. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 8.20 / X 9.50 / 2 1.05
Glicko: FC Juticalpa 13.1% / X 20.0% / Motagua 66.9%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 18.0%
110.3%
X8.9%
2 ✓ Pick80.7%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
Liga Nacional
Best price
across 9 books
18.6010Bet
X4.75Betfair
21.38Bet365
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
FC Juticalpa
Rating 1430xG 0.74Win 15%
Motagua
Rating 1596xG 1.83Win 63%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
FC Juticalpa1:4Motagua
18.80
X4.45
21.31
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
FC Juticalpa11.1%13.1%
Draw19.8%20.0%draw risk
Motagua69.1%66.9%market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P213.1% / 20.0% / 66.9%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.05
Fonbet · no value · model 66.9%
X9.50
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
18.00
market consensus · no value · model 13.1%
Double chance
121.03
Fonbet · no value · model 80.0%
1X7.30
Fonbet · no value · model 33.1%
X21.07
Fonbet · no value · model 86.9%
Handicap
2 -11.70
market consensus · line only
2 01.16
Fonbet · line only
1 +12.05
market consensus · line only
1 04.30
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.52.45
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.51.48
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.13
Fonbet · line only
Yes4.80
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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