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Honduras: Natsionalnaya liga - Apertura Standings
Honduras: Natsionalnaya liga - Apertura Standings
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line –Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
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Honduras: Natsionalnaya liga - Apertura Standings

Marafon - Atletico Independiente

Football
M
Marafon
- : -
Not started
A
Atletico Independiente

Marafon go head-to-head with Atletico Independiente on August 4, 2026 in the Honduras: Natsionalnaya liga - Apertura Standings.

Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Marafon — 52%

1 · Marafon52.1%
X · draw19.4%
2 · Atletico Independiente28.5%

Model estimate: win Marafon 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Atletico Independiente 28.5%. Model favourite — Marafon.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Marafon (odds1.57) Score 2:1 confidence 52%
  • • Model backs Marafon: probability 52% vs 64% on the line (odds 1.57)
  • • no edge over the line (-12 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Marafon - Atletico Independiente August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Marafon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.56 / X 3.63 / 2 5.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.2%
1 58.2%
X 25.0%
2 16.8%

Odds source: Leon line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Marafon 0 : 0 Atletico Independiente
11.53
X3.64
25.78

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 58.2% @ 1.56 / X 25.0% @ 3.63 / 2 16.8% @ 5.40
Match center

Marafon - Atletico Independiente

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Marafon 57.9% 52.1% market and model agree
Draw 24.9% 19.4% draw risk
Atletico Independiente 17.2% 28.5%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 52.1% / 19.4% / 28.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Marafon / Atletico Independiente
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.40 market consensus · no value · model 28.5%
X 3.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 52.1%
Handicap
2 +1 1.75 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.95 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.88 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.79 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.77 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.95 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.77 56.5%
yes 1.95 51.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.09 47.9%
X 2.10 47.6%
6.40 15.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.88 53.2%
Under 1 1.82 55.0%

Handicap

Outcome Leon
1.95 51.3%
1.75 57.1%