Guatemala. Liga Nacional
Guastotoya go head-to-head with Malacateco on August 2, 2026 in the Guatemala. Liga Nacional.
Recent form (W-D-L): Guastotoya 1-0-0, Malacateco 0-0-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Guastotoya — 54%
Pure model vs market (1 · Guastotoya): model 57% · market 49% Δ +8 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Guastotoya 54.4%, draw 26.5%, win Malacateco 19.1%. Model favourite — Guastotoya.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.63 61.4% |
| yes | 2.14 46.7% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.28 78.1% | 1.42 70.4% |
| 1x | 1.11 90.1% | 1.13 88.5% |
| x2 | 1.71 58.5% | 1.80 55.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.63 38.0% | |
| X | 1.77 56.5% |
| 6.10 16.4% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.61 62.1% |
| Over 1 | 2.06 48.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.18 45.9% |
| Under 1 | 1.68 59.5% |
Avrora
Full head-to-head historyGuastotoya - Malacateco
The Guastotoya - Malacateco breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
