Iceland: Division 1 Standings
Trottyur - Afturelding
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Trottyur — 43%
Pure model vs market (1 · Trottyur): model 39% · market 43% Δ −4 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Trottyur 43.1%, draw 23.5%, win Afturelding 33.4%. Model favourite — Trottyur.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
- • Model backs Trottyur: probability 50% vs 48% on the line (odds 2.07)
- • edge over the line +2 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Trottyur - Afturelding July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 3.90 / 2 2.80
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Trottyur - Afturelding
What data is collected and where it is shown
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.86 35.0% |
| yes | 1.37 73.0% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.21 82.6% |
| 1x | 1.35 74.1% | 1.38 72.5% |
| x2 | 1.59 62.9% | 1.64 61.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.60 38.5% | |
| X | 2.37 42.2% |
| 3.29 30.4% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.04 49.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.69 59.2% |
Trottyur
Leyknir
Volsungur
IR Reykyavik
Nyardvik
Kopavogyur
Afturelding
Leyknir
Volsungur
IR Reykyavik
Egir
Nyardvik
Full head-to-head historyTrottyur - Afturelding
Match history
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The Trottyur - Afturelding breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form