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Iceland. Premier League

05.08.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction

05.08.2026 18:00 UTC

Finished

Iceland. Premier League

Keflavik - KA Akureyri

Football

Keflavik

3 : 0

Finished

KA Akureyri

Keflavik face KA Akureyri on August 5, 2026 in the Iceland. Premier League.

Recent form (W-D-L): Keflavik 2-1-2, KA Akureyri 1-2-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 51% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Keflavik — 51%

Pure model vs market (1 · Keflavik): model 40% · market 53% Δ −13 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Keflavik51.3%

X · draw22.5%

2 · KA Akureyri26.2%

Model estimate: win Keflavik 51.3%, draw 22.5%, win KA Akureyri 26.2%. Model favourite — Keflavik.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Keflavik (odds2.49) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct

• Model backs Keblavik: probability 50% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.49)
• edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
• Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Keflavik - KA Akureyri August 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Keflavik.

Line favourite Fonbet: Keflavik. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 7.90 / 2 13.00
Glicko: Keflavik 51.3% / X 22.5% / KA Akureyri 26.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.1% 4 books · best price +3.8%

1 52.6%

X 22.5%

2 24.9%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Úrvalsdeild

League table

Keflavik

#719 ptsGP 165-4-725:33

KA Akureyri

#1015 ptsGP 164-3-924:32

Best price across 14 books

1 2.18 Pinnacle

X 3.96 Pinnacle

2 3.00 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Keflavik

W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.61 Conceded 2.20 xG 1.73 xGA 2.02

KA Akureyri

W-D-L 2-2-6 Scored 1.70 Conceded 2.40 xG 1.65 xGA 2.09

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Keflavik

Rating 1471 xG 1.58 Win 42%

KA Akureyri

Rating 1446 xG 1.41 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center

Start 05.08.2026 18:00 UTC

Market 1 83.0% @ 1.01 / X 10.6% @ 7.90 / 2 6.4% @ 13.00

Match center

Keflavik - KA Akureyri

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Keblavik - Akyureyri, 5 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Championship Islandii po futbolu 2026, 17-y Round. Keblavik - Akyureyri, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:0

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 51.3% fact: home hit / ROI 80.0% / Brier 0.356 / LogLoss 0.667

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 51.3% fact: home hit / ROI 80.0% / Brier 0.356 / LogLoss 0.667

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Keflavik 52.0% 51.3% market and model agree

Draw 22.5% 22.5% draw risk

KA Akureyri 25.4% 26.2%

1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 51.3% / 22.5% / 26.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,418 / 1,496 Keflavik / KA Akureyri

RD 199 / 206 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,020-1,816 / 1,083-1,909 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.67 market consensus · no value · model 26.2%

X 7.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 51.3%

Double chance

12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 77.5%

1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 73.8%

X2 9.50 Fonbet · weak value +362.4% · model 48.7%

Handicap

2 -1 2.02 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 6.50 Fonbet · line only

2 0 2.58 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.04 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 7.80 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.18 Fonbet · line only

Yes 4.10 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.18 84.8%	2.88 34.7%
yes	4.10 24.4%	1.36 73.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.18 84.8%	1.20 83.3%	1.05 95.2%
1x	1.23 81.3%	1.25 80.0%	1.02 98.0%
x2	1.96 51.0%	1.95 51.3%	9.50 10.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.20 45.5%
X	2.53 39.5%
	3.84 26.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1.5	1.94 51.6%
Under 1.5	1.77 56.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 3.0 gls

2026-04-26 · Keblavik IF 2:1 Akyureyri

Source: ruscore

Keflavik

L W L D W

2026-07-24 Besta deild 2026

Keflavik Vikingur Reykjavik 5:1 Keflavik

2026-07-20 Besta deild 2026

Keflavik Keflavik 5:2 IA Akranes

2026-07-13 Besta deild 2026

Keflavik Breidablik 2:1 Keflavik

2026-07-06 Besta deild 2026

Keflavik Keflavik 1:1 Fram Reykjavik

2026-06-28 Besta deild 2026

Keflavik Keflavik 3:2 KR Reykjavik

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

2.2 Scored

2.4 Conceded

7 Points

KA Akureyri

D D W L L

2026-07-27 Besta deild 2026

KA Akureyri 0:0 Thor Akureyri KA Akureyri

2026-07-19 Besta deild 2026

IB Vestmannaeyjar 2:2 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri

2026-07-12 Besta deild 2026

KA Akureyri 3:2 IA Akranes KA Akureyri

2026-07-02 Besta deild 2026

Vikingur Reykjavik 3:2 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri

2026-06-28 Besta deild 2026

Stjarnan 3:1 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

2.0 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyKeflavik - KA Akureyri

Keflavik

0 matches total

KA Akureyri

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Keflavik

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 KA Akureyri

16 Games 16

5 Wins 4

4 Draws 3

7 Losses 9

25 Scored 24

33 Conceded 32

19 Points 15

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Shots on target 0

2.25 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Sindri Snaer Magnusson 1:0 27' Dagur Ingi Valsson 2:0 32' Stefan Lyubichich 3:0 37' Nakazaniya Eidur Ragnarsson 23' Markus Mani Petursson 45' Marin Brigic 50' Asgeir Magnusson 53' Andre Remer 55' Eidur Ragnarsson 62' Thorlakur Baxter 64' Statistika Keblavik Akyureyri 4 Warnings 2 1 Sendoffs 0

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Keblavik Akyureyri 16 Games 16 5 Wins 4 Draws 3 7 Losses 9 25 Scored 24 33 Conceded 32 19 Points 15 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 1.5 Warnings 2.25 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Sindri Snaer Magnusson 1:0 27' Dagur Ingi Valsson 2:0 32' Stefan Lyubichich 3:0 37' Nakazaniya Eidur Ragnarsson 23' Markus Mani Petursson 45' Marin Brigic 50' Asgeir Magnusson 53' Andre Remer 55' Eidur Ragnarsson 62' Thorlakur Baxter 64' Statistika Keblavik Akyureyri 4 Warnings 2 1 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 48% 30% 22% Double chance 39% 35% 26% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1304992' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');