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Ireland. Division 1
Ireland. Division 1
02.08.2026 16:00 UTC
02.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Not started

Ireland. Division 1

Longford Town - Finn Harps

Football
Longford Town
Longford Town
- : -
Not started
Finn Harps
Finn Harps

Longford Town meet Finn Harps on August 2, 2026 in the Ireland. Division 1.

Recent form (W-D-L): Longford Town 1-1-2, Finn Harps 0-2-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Longford Town — 55%

Pure model vs market (1 · Longford Town): model 41% · market 56% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Longford Town54.6%
X · draw25.2%
2 · Finn Harps20.2%

Model estimate: win Longford Town 54.6%, draw 25.2%, win Finn Harps 20.2%. Model favourite — Longford Town.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Longford Town (odds1.66) Score 2:1 confidence 55%
  • • Model backs Longford Taun: probability 55% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.66)
  • • no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Longford Town - Finn Harps August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Longford Town. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.67 / X 3.70 / 2 4.92

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.2%
1 55.8%
X 25.2%
2 19.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

First Division
League table
Longford Town
#434 ptsGP 259-7-929:32
Finn Harps
#1022 ptsGP 255-7-1321:43
Best price across 10 books
1 1.72 Unibet
X 3.75 10Bet
2 4.89 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Longford Town
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.80 Conceded 1.90 xG 1.15 xGA 1.52
Finn Harps
W-D-L 1-2-7 Scored 0.60 Conceded 2.40 xG 1.03 xGA 1.75

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Longford Town
Rating 1452 xG 1.45 Win 51%
Finn Harps
Rating 1340 xG 0.87 Win 23%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 16:00 UTC
Market 1 55.8% @ 1.67 / X 25.2% @ 3.70 / 2 19.0% @ 4.92
Match center

Longford Town - Finn Harps

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Longford Town 55.5% 54.6% market and model agree
Draw 25.4% 25.2% draw risk
Finn Harps 19.2% 20.2%
xG - 1.43 : 0.93

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 54.6% / 25.2% / 20.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,538 / 1,601 Longford Town / Finn Harps
RD 194 / 255 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,150-1,926 / 1,090-2,112 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.81 market consensus · no value · model 20.2%
X 3.65 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 54.6%
Double chance
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 79.8%
X2 2.05 market consensus · no value · model 45.4%
Handicap
2 +1 1.61 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.60 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.20 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.25 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.13 88.5% 1.15 87.0%
x2 2.03 49.3% 2.07 48.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.25 44.4%
X 2.16 46.3%
5.20 19.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.69 37.2%
Under 1.5 1.37 73.0%
Match center
Longford Town
D L L W
31.07 16:45 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Longford Town 0:0 Triti YunaytedTriti Yunayted
25.07 16:30 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Longford Town 1:2 VeksfordVeksford
27.06 16:45 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Longford Town 1:2 KerryKerry
13.06 16:30 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Longford Town 2:1 Kob RemblersKob Remblers
1 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.3 Conceded
4 Points
Finn Harps
D L D
31.07 16:45 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Finn Harps 0:0 Kork SitiKork Siti
25.07 16:45 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Finn Harps 1:2 KerryKerry
27.06 16:45 UTC Ireland: First Division Standings
Finn Harps 1:1 AtlonAtlon
0 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
0.7 Scored
1.0 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLongford Town - Finn Harps

Longford Town
0 matches total
Finn Harps
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history