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Ireland. Cup. Round of 32
Ireland. Cup. Round of 32
22 round 27.06.2026 16:45 UTC Match prediction
27.06.2026 16:45 UTC 22 round
Finished

Ireland. Cup. Round of 32

FC Dundalk - Waterford

Futbol
FC Dundalk
FC Dundalk
2 : 3
Finished
Waterford
Waterford
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1FC Dundalk (odds1.51) Score 3:0 (odds9.00) confidence 79% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Dandolk: probability 79% vs 74% on the line (odds 1.35)
  • • edge over the line +5 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 3:0 (odds 9.00).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Dundalk - Waterford June 27, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Dundalk.

Line favourite market consensus: FC Dundalk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.53 / X 4.28 / 2 5.15
  • 1X2 market: FC Dundalk 60.3% / X 21.7% / Waterford 18.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 60.4%
X 21.6%
2 18.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Premier Division
League table
FC Dundalk
#435 ptsGP 229-8-536:32
LWWWD
Waterford
#1017 ptsGP 223-8-1128:44
WLWDL
Best price across 14 books
1 1.55 10Bet
X 4.63 Pinnacle
2 5.78 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
FC Dundalk
W-D-L 5-2-3 Scored 1.40 Conceded 1.40 xG 1.47 xGA 1.33 Corners 6.2
1 +3.35 X -2.70 2 -1.20 1 (DNB) +1.81
Waterford
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.70 Conceded 1.90 xG 1.05 xGA 1.80 Corners 4.6
1 -5.45 X +4.60 2 -4.34 1 (DNB) -2.67

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
FC Dundalk
Rating 1587 xG 1.90 Win 61%
Waterford
Rating 1442 xG 0.88 Win 17%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 5/5
Confidence 66.1%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

VALUE

Fonbet · historical ROI

Extra value signals (not 1x2)

LOW

Total goals: Under 3.5

odds 1.72 hist. ROI +2.0%

Under 3.5 (zaschitnyy match)

Signals built from a May 2026 backtest: statistical windows with a stable positive ROI. Not financial advice — play responsibly.

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Match center
Stadium Oriel Park (Dandolk, Ireland), vmestimost: 4500
Start 27.06.2026 16:45 UTC
Match center

FC Dundalk - Waterford

Football, Dandolk - Uoterford, 26 iyunya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Dandolk - Uoterford, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Ireland — Premer Division 2026, 22 round.

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Dundalk 62.0% - market favourite
Draw 21.6% - draw risk
Waterford 16.3% -
Total 2.5 Over 63.4% - Under 36.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.00
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.00

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.15 market consensus · line only
X 4.32 market consensus · line only
1 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.04 Fonbet · line only
X2 7.60 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 2.95 Fonbet · line only
2 0 7.70 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.35 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.04 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 63.4%
Under 2.5 3.00 Fonbet · no value · model 36.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.08 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.67 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.55 64.5% 1.56 64.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.53 65.4%
X 4.30 23.3% 4.40 22.7% 4.00 25.0% 4.15 24.1% 4.33 23.1% 4.20 23.8%
5.25 19.1% 5.01 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 4.90 20.4% 6.00 16.7% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet
no 2.08 48.1%
yes 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.01 99.0%
1x 1.04 96.2%
x2 7.60 13.2%

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.02 98.0%
1.35 74.1%
1.22 82.0%
1.42 70.4%
2.07 48.3%
3.30 30.3%
4.20 23.8%
9.00 11.1%
1.04 96.2%
10.00 10.0%
2.95 33.9%
3.70 27.0%
2.65 37.7%
1.67 59.9%
1.25 80.0%
1.17 85.5%
1.03 97.1%
7.70 13.0%
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC Dundalk - Waterford

FC Dundalk
0 matches total
Waterford
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 FC Dundalk
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Waterford
FC Dundalk Team comparison Waterford
21 Games 21
9 Wins 2
8 Draws 8
4 Losses 11
34 Scored 25
29 Conceded 42
35 Points 14
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
15.57 Shots on goal 11.26
5.9 Shots on target 3.24
Sootnoshenie statisticheskikh dannykh komand Dandolk Uoterford 21 Games 21 9 Wins 2 8 Draws 8 4 Losses 11 34 Scored 25 29 Conceded 42 35 Points 14 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 15.57 Shots on goal 11.26 5.9 Udary v stvor 3.24 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.95 Uglovye 4.67 1.24 Offsaydy 1.62 10.52 Foly 11

Dandolk Uoterford 21 Games 21 9 Wins 2 8 Draws 8 4 Losses 11 34 Scored 25 29 Conceded 42 35 Points 14 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 15.57 Shots on goal 11.26 5.9 Udary v stvor 3.24 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.95 Uglovye 4.67 1.24 Offsaydy 1.62 10.52 Foly 11.62 49.76 % vladeniya myachom 37.24 2.24 Warnings 2.29 0.29 Sendoffs 0