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30.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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30.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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Ireland. Premier League
Saint Patrick's Athletic - Derry City
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Derry City — 47%
Model estimate: win Saint Patrick's Athletic 33.1%, draw 19.7%, win Derry City 47.1%. Model favourite — Derry City.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Saint Patrick's Athletic - Derry City July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
2.95
↑ 17.00
1X2 X
3.15
↑ 4.40
1X2 P2
2.35
↓ 1.25
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Saint Patrick's Athletic - Derry City
Form
3/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Saint Patrick's Athletic
5.4%
33.1%
Draw
20.9%
19.7%
draw risk
Derry City
73.7%
47.1%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
33.1% / 19.7% / 47.1%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,443 / 1,556
Saint Patrick's Athletic / Derry City
RD
267 / 253
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
910-1,977 / 1,049-2,063
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.04
Fonbet · no value · model 47.1%
X
5.30
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12
1.11
Fonbet · no value · model 80.3%
1X
7.80
Fonbet · weak value +312.4% · model 52.9%
X2
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 66.9%
Handicap
2 -1
1.15
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
3.55
Fonbet · line only
2 0
1.02
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
4.50
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
10.00
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.02
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.40
Fonbet · line only
Yes
2.75
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.40 71.4% |
| yes | 2.75 36.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.11 90.1% |
| 1x | 7.80 12.8% |
| x2 | 1.02 98.0% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 1.23 81.3% | |
| 1.03 97.1% | |
| 1.05 95.2% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 4.50 22.2% | |
| 6.30 15.9% | |
| 12.00 8.3% | |
| 10.00 10.0% | |
| 3.55 28.2% | |
| 8.50 11.8% | |
| 7.30 13.7% | |
| 11.00 9.1% | |
| 11.00 9.1% | |
| 1.15 87.0% | |
| 1.07 93.5% | |
| 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.02 98.0% |
Total
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.09 91.7% |
| Over 1 | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 8.50 11.8% |
| Over 2 | 1.37 73.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 10.00 10.0% |
| Over 3 | 2.35 42.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 10.50 9.5% |
| Over 4 | 4.30 23.3% |
| Over 4.5 | 10.50 9.5% |
| Over 5.5 | 5.30 18.9% |
| Under 0.5 | 5.80 17.2% |
| Under 1 | 6.90 14.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.03 97.1% |
| Under 2 | 2.85 35.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.02 98.0% |
| Under 3 | 1.52 65.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.02 98.0% |
| Under 4 | 1.16 86.2% |
Match center
Saint Patrick's Athletic
W
D
L
Saint Patrick's Athletic
2:1
Dandolk
Dandolk
Saint Patrick's Athletic
1:1
Uoterford Yunayted
Uoterford Yunayted
Saint Patrick's Athletic
0:2
Bogemians
Bogemians
1
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.3
Conceded
4
Points
Derry City
W
Derry City
2:0
Droeda Yunayted
Droeda Yunayted
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySaint Patrick's Athletic - Derry City
Saint Patrick's Athletic
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Match history & form