AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Rayo Vallecano. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
Spain: Primera Standings
Rayo Vallecano meet Alaves on August 20, 2026 in the Spain: Primera Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Rayo Vallecano 1-0-4, Alaves 3-2-0. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Rayo Vallecano — 52%
Model estimate: win Rayo Vallecano 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Alaves 28.5%. Model favourite — Rayo Vallecano.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.63 61.4% | 1.62 61.7% |
| yes | 2.20 45.5% | 2.17 46.1% |
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% |
| 1x | 1.29 77.5% | 1.32 75.8% |
| x2 | 1.65 60.6% | 1.65 60.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.04 32.9% | |
| X | 1.91 52.4% |
| 4.38 22.8% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.55 64.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.31 43.3% |
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Full head-to-head history: Rayo Vallecano - Alaves
The Rayo Vallecano - Alaves breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 20, 2026.
