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Israel. League Cup. Group stage
Israel. League Cup. Group stage
28.07.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished

Israel. League Cup. Group stage

Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona - Maccabi Haifa

Football
H
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona
3 : 0
Finished
M
Maccabi Haifa
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Maccabi Haifa — 52%

Pure model vs market (2 · Maccabi Haifa): model 27% · market 35% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona23.6%
X · draw24.6%
2 · Maccabi Haifa51.8%

Model estimate: win Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 23.6%, draw 24.6%, win Maccabi Haifa 51.8%. Model favourite — Maccabi Haifa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (odds3.50) Score 2:1 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Kiryat-Shmona: probability 56% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.50)
  • • edge over the line +27 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona - Maccabi Haifa July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona.

Line favourite Fonbet: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.03 / X 13.00 / 2 1.75
  • Glicko: Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 23.6% / X 24.6% / Maccabi Haifa 51.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 61.9%
1 60.0%
X 4.8%
2 35.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1 : 2 Maccabi Haifa
14.82
X3.80
21.59

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Participant opinions
15 predictions Choose an outcome
1 0% 0
X 50% 2
2 50% 2
Double chance 12 1.22 (1)
handicap1 handicap2:0 1.26 (1) - handicap2:-1 2.20 (1) - handicap1:1_5 1.36 (1)
total_t1_under total_t1_over:1 1.99 (2) - total_t2_over:1_5 1.65 (1)
Total TB 3.5 2.53 (1) - TB 5.5 9.20 (1)
Match center
Start 28.07.2026 15:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Draw 50%
📐 Math model Maccabi Haifa 52%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona - Maccabi Haifa

Form 0/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions Stavka.tv 4 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 21.9% 23.6%
Draw 24.8% 24.6% draw risk
Maccabi Haifa 53.4% 51.8% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 23.6% / 24.6% / 51.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,374 Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona / Maccabi Haifa
RD 350 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 792-1,956 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 51.8%
X 3.70 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 23.6%
Double chance
12 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 75.4%
1X 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 48.2%
X2 8.50 Fonbet · weak value +549.4% · model 76.4%
Handicap
2 -1 2.15 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 4.80 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.38 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.62 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 7.30 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.11 Fonbet · line only
Yes 5.20 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.11 90.1% 2.15 46.5%
yes 5.20 19.2% 1.63 61.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.21 82.6% 1.25 80.0% 1.01 99.0%
1x 1.94 51.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 8.50 11.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
4.85 20.6%
X 2.21 45.3%
2.21 45.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.65 60.6%
Under 1 2.12 47.2%
Match center
Maccabi Haifa
L
25.07 15:30 UTC Israel: Cup Toto Standings
Maccabi Haifa 2:3 Khapoel Khayfa
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points