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J1 League
J1 League Japan
05.04.2026 05:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 05:00 UTC
Finished

J1 League

Japan

Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos

Japan Football
Stadium SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium
Capacity 15 900
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
3 : 0
Finished
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Kashiwa Reysol — 56%

1 · Kashiwa Reysol ✓ Pick55.6%
X · draw24.3%
2 · Yokohama F. Marinos20.1%

Model estimate: win Kashiwa Reysol 55.6%, draw 24.3%, win Yokohama F. Marinos 20.1%. Model favourite — Kashiwa Reysol.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Kashiwa Reysol.

Strongest: Kashiwa Reysol - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.62 / X 3.91 / 2 5.08
  • 1X2 market: Kashiwa Reysol 57.7% / X 23.9% / Yokohama F. Marinos 18.4%
  • Glicko: Kashiwa Reysol 55.6% / X 24.3% / Yokohama F. Marinos 20.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 15.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.0%
1 ✓ Pick 57.7%
X 23.9%
2 18.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 53.6%
Under 2.5 46.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 57.1%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 05:00 UTC
Stadium SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium
Capacity 15,900

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Kashiwa Reysol 56%
💹 Market Kashiwa Reysol 5772%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos

Kashiwa Reysol: Win 1.70 Kashiwa Reysol: Draw 3.70 Yokohama F. Marinos Win: 5.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Kashiwa Reysol bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Kashiwa Reysol menshe 1.5: 2.10 Ind…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 18
Statistics 26
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Card upgrade | Jeisson QuiG±Gіnes Dalila Jakupovic Yokohama F. Marinos
12' 12' Red Card | Jeisson QuiG±Gіnes Dalila Jakupovic Yokohama F. Marinos
16' 16' Penalty confirmed | H. Yamauchi Kashiwa Reysol
18' 18' Penalty | Y. Komi Kashiwa Reysol
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Dean David | assist/sub out: Ryo Miyaichi Yokohama F. Marinos
46' 46' Substitution 1 | H. Yamauchi | assist/sub out: K. Yuruki Kashiwa Reysol
61' 61' Substitution 4 | H. Mitsumaru | assist/sub out: D. Sugioka Kashiwa Reysol
61' 61' Substitution 3 | H. Mitsumaru | assist/sub out: D. Sugioka Kashiwa Reysol
Metric Kashiwa Reysol Yokohama F. Marinos SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.21 0.3 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 6 1 final
Shots on target 4 2 final
Udary vsego 17 5 final
Fouls soversheno 10 6 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Kashiwa Reysol 58.3% 55.6% market and model agree
Draw 23.4% 24.3% draw risk
Yokohama F. Marinos 18.3% 20.1%
xG - 1.67 : 0.89
Total 2.5 Over 15.2% - Under 84.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 55.6% / 24.3% / 20.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,514 / 1,489 Kashiwa Reysol / Yokohama F. Marinos
RD 115 / 115 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.08 market consensus · no value · model 20.1%
X 3.91 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 55.6%
Double chance
X2 2.23 market consensus · no value · model 44.5%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 75.7%
1X 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.29 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.75 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.25 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.80 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · no value · model 15.2%
Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · weak value +72.1% · model 84.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.97 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet
1.64 61.0% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.60 62.5% 1.59 62.9%
X 4.10 24.4% 3.98 25.1% 3.70 27.0% 4.05 24.7% 3.90 25.6% 3.98 25.1%
5.10 19.6% 5.12 19.5% 5.25 19.1% 5.20 19.2% 5.25 19.1% 5.20 19.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.01 49.8% 1.96 51.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.78 56.2% 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet SBO
draw_away 2.26 44.3% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.26 44.3% 2.15 46.5%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.23 81.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.12 89.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 — 1.20 83.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 2.5 — 1.76 56.8%
Over 2.75 2.01 49.8% 1.91 52.4%
Over 3.0 — 2.22 45.1%
Over 3.25 — 2.48 40.3%
Over 3.5 — 2.76 36.2%
Over 3.75 — 3.28 30.5%
Over 4.0 — 4.40 22.7%
Over 4.25 — 4.75 21.1%
Over 4.5 — 5.10 19.6%
Under 2.75 1.89 52.9% —
Match center
Kashiwa Reysol
Founded 1940
Yokohama F. Marinos
Founded 1972
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.