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J1 League
J1 League Japan
05.04.2026 05:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 05:00 UTC
Finished

J1 League

Japan

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka

Japan Football
Stadium Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0 : 1
Finished
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — 56%

1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima ✓ Pick55.6%
X · draw25.6%
2 · Avispa Fukuoka18.9%

Model estimate: win Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55.6%, draw 25.6%, win Avispa Fukuoka 18.9%. Model favourite — Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Strongest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.51 / X 3.92 / 2 6.19
  • 1X2 market: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61.3% / X 23.7% / Avispa Fukuoka 15.0%
  • Glicko: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 55.6% / X 25.6% / Avispa Fukuoka 18.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 12.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 ✓ Pick 61.4%
X 23.6%
2 15.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 47.2%
Under 2.5 52.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 59.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 05:00 UTC
Stadium Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Sanfrecce Hiroshima 56%
💹 Market Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6129%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Win 1.48 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Draw 4.10 Avispa Fukuoka Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Sanfrecce Hiroshima bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Sanfrecce Hiroshima mensh…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
16' 16' Normal Goal Avispa Fukuoka
46' 46' Substitution 1 | S. Nakano | assist/sub out: S. Higashi Sanfrecce Hiroshima
50' 50' Yellow Card Avispa Fukuoka
57' 57' Substitution 2 | Y. Nakajima | assist/sub out: T. Arslan Sanfrecce Hiroshima
58' 58' Substitution 3 | K. Kinoshita | assist/sub out: M. Kato Ivan Markelov Sanfrecce Hiroshima
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Keiya Shiihashi | assist/sub out: Kohei Okuno Avispa Fukuoka
63' 63' Yellow Card | M. Tashiro Avispa Fukuoka
63' 63' Substitution 1 | Masato Shigemi | assist/sub out: Yuji Kitajima Avispa Fukuoka
Metric Sanfrecce Hiroshima Avispa Fukuoka SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.05 1.33 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 4 final
Shots off target 7 6 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 14 13 final
Fouls soversheno 10 9 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 61.7% 55.6% market and model agree
Draw 23.5% 25.6% draw risk
Avispa Fukuoka 14.8% 18.9%
xG - 1.55 : 0.78
Total 2.5 Over 12.2% - Under 87.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 55.6% / 25.6% / 18.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,530 / 1,365 Sanfrecce Hiroshima / Avispa Fukuoka
RD 115 / 116 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.19 market consensus · no value · model 18.9%
X 3.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 55.6%
Double chance
X2 2.43 market consensus · no value · model 44.4%
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 81.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.50 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.89 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.01 market consensus · no value · model 12.2%
Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · weak value +58.1% · model 87.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.70 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.05 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.50 66.7% 1.56 64.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.44 69.4%
X 3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0% 3.70 27.0% 4.10 24.4% 3.90 25.6%
6.50 15.4% 6.20 16.1% 6.10 16.4% 6.25 16.0% 6.40 15.6% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano BetVictor Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.73 57.8%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.03 49.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3% 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9% 1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% —
Over 3.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Over 4.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% —
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1% — —
Under 4.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Founded 1938
Avispa Fukuoka
Founded 1982
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.