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Start
05.04.2026 04:00 UTC
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05.04.2026 04:00 UTC
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J1 League
V-varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-pulse
0
:
3
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction V-varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-pulse April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Shimizu S-pulse.
Line favourite market consensus: Shimizu S-pulse. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.65 / X 3.39 / 2 2.46
- 1X2 market: V-varen Nagasaki 35.0% / X 27.4% / Shimizu S-pulse 37.6%
- Glicko: V-varen Nagasaki - / X 100.0% / Shimizu S-pulse -
- Total 2.5: over probability 80.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.9%
1
35.0%
X
27.3%
2
37.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5
50.8%
Under 2.5
49.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
60.1%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
V-varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki: Win 2.70 V-varen Nagasaki: Draw 3.50 Shimizu S-pulse Win: 2.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.90 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.90 Individualnyy total golov V-varen Nagasaki bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov V-varen Nagasaki menshe 1.5: 1.50…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:3
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
0
min
Event
Player
Team
1'
1' Normal Goal | Oh Se-Hun
Shimizu S-pulse
4'
4' Normal Goal | Yudai Shimamoto | assist/sub out: K. Inoue
Shimizu S-pulse
45'
45' Penalty | Oh Se-Hun
Shimizu S-pulse
45+1'
45+1' Goal confirmed | Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi
Shimizu S-pulse
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Masahiro Sekiguchi | assist/sub out: Eduardo
V-varen Nagasaki
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Masahiro Sekiguchi | assist/sub out: Eduardo
V-varen Nagasaki
46'
46' Substitution 1 | K. Inoue | assist/sub out: Kazuki Kozuka
Shimizu S-pulse
73'
73' Substitution 3 | Kengo Kitazume | assist/sub out: H. Hidaka
Shimizu S-pulse
Metric
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.53
1.22
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
4
final
Shots off target
4
3
final
Shots on target
1
4
final
Udary vsego
7
11
final
Fouls soversheno
10
10
final
Zheltye kartochki
0
1
final
Offsides
1
2
final
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
V-varen Nagasaki
35.3%
-
Draw
27.0%
100.0%
draw risk
Shimizu S-pulse
37.7%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 80.5%
-
Under 19.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.73
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.73
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,519 / 1,507
V-varen Nagasaki / Shimizu S-pulse
RD
134 / 109
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.46
market consensus · line only
X
3.39
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.65
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.43
market consensus · line only
12
1.29
market consensus · line only
1X
1.50
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.47
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.18
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.47
market consensus · line only
2 +1
3.97
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.87
market consensus · weak value +50.6% · model 80.5%
Under 2.5
1.93
market consensus · no value · model 19.5%
Both teams to score
No
2.10
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.67
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.70 37.0% | 2.66 37.6% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.72 36.8% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.63 38.0% | |
| X | 3.55 28.2% | 3.42 29.2% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.40 29.4% |
| 2.51 39.8% | 2.48 40.3% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.50 40.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | BetVictor | Marathonbet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.16 46.3% | 2.09 47.9% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.06 48.5% | 2.15 46.5% |
| yes | 1.67 59.9% | 1.66 60.2% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.66 60.2% | 1.65 60.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.44 69.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.44 69.4% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% |
| home_draw | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.50 66.7% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.13 88.5% |
| Over 1.5 | — | 1.24 80.7% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.39 71.9% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.61 62.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 1.86 53.8% |
| Over 2.75 | — | 2.04 49.0% |
| Over 3.0 | — | 2.41 41.5% |
| Over 3.25 | — | 2.69 37.2% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 2.94 34.0% |
| Over 3.75 | — | 3.58 27.9% |
| Over 4.0 | — | 4.80 20.8% |
| Over 4.25 | — | 5.15 19.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | — |
Match center
V-varen Nagasaki
Founded
1985
Shimizu S-pulse
Founded
1991
Match center
Full head-to-head historyV-varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
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- Match history & form