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Jupiler Pro League
Jupiler Pro League Belgium
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Jupiler Pro League

Belgium

KVC Westerlo - Charleroi

Belgium Football
Stadium Het Kuipje
Capacity 8 035
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
2 : 0
Finished
Charleroi
Charleroi
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 KVC Westerlo — 37%

1 · KVC Westerlo36.6%
X · draw27.4%
2 · Charleroi36.1%

Model estimate: win KVC Westerlo 36.6%, draw 27.4%, win Charleroi 36.1%. Model favourite — KVC Westerlo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction KVC Westerlo - Charleroi April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like KVC Westerlo.

Strongest: KVC Westerlo - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.54 / X 3.23 / 2 2.69
  • 1X2 market: KVC Westerlo 36.7% / X 28.8% / Charleroi 34.5%
  • Glicko: KVC Westerlo 36.6% / X 27.4% / Charleroi 36.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 17.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5%
1 36.6%
X 28.8%
2 34.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 56.8%
Under 2.5 43.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 27.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Het Kuipje (Westerlo)
Capacity 8,035

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model KVC Westerlo 37%
💹 Market KVC Westerlo 3666%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

KVC Westerlo - Charleroi

KVC Westerlo: Win 2.45 KVC Westerlo: Draw 3.50 Charleroi Win: 2.55 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.65 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov KVC Westerlo bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov KVC Westerlo menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total …

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 15
Statistics 26
Lineups 15
min Event Player Team
34' 34' Penalty | E. Bayram KVC Westerlo
54' 54' Yellow Card Charleroi
59' 59' Yellow Card | J. Alcocer KVC Westerlo
60' 60' Red Card Charleroi
60' 60' Yellow Card | E. Camara Charleroi
62' 62' Substitution 1 | S. Saito | assist/sub out: D. Ourega KVC Westerlo
66' 66' Yellow Card KVC Westerlo
72' 72' Substitution 3 | A. Bernier | assist/sub out: J. Romsaas Charleroi
Metric KVC Westerlo Charleroi SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.41 1.28 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 6 2 final
Shots on target 5 4 final
Udary vsego 15 7 final
Fouls soversheno 10 14 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 2 final
Charleroi #3 K. Van Den Kerkhof, #4 A. Ousou, #5 E. Camara, #10 Parfait Guiagon, #17 A. Bernier, #22 Yassine Titraoui, #24 M. Nzita, #95 C. Keita
Player Team Metric SStats
Martin Delavallée Seyvy 0
A. Bernier Charleroi football.player.assists 0
A. Bernier Charleroi Dribling popytki 9
A. Bernier Charleroi Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Bernier Charleroi Edinoborstva vyigrano 15
A. Bernier Charleroi Fouls soversheno 2
A. Bernier Charleroi Fouls na igroke 2
A. Bernier Charleroi Seyvy 0
A. Bernier Charleroi football.player.minutes_played 72
A. Bernier Charleroi Tochnost pasov % 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
KVC Westerlo 36.1% 36.6% market and model agree
Draw 28.5% 27.4% draw risk
Charleroi 35.5% 36.1%
xG - 1.23 : 1.22
Total 2.5 Over 17.2% - Under 82.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.6% / 27.4% / 36.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,533 / 1,507 KVC Westerlo / Charleroi
RD 73 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.69 market consensus · no value · model 36.1%
X 3.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.54 market consensus · no value · model 36.6%
Double chance
X2 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 63.5%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%
1X 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 63.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.48 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.68 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.42 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 17.2%
Under 2.5 2.20 market consensus · weak value +82.2% · model 82.8%
Both teams to score
No 2.43 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.50 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
2.42 41.3% 2.65 37.7% 2.65 37.7% 2.40 41.7% 2.59 38.6% 2.64 37.9%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.17 31.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.12 32.1%
2.59 38.6% 2.82 35.5% 2.85 35.1% 2.60 38.5% 2.76 36.2% 2.85 35.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Betano Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 2.46 40.7% 2.42 41.3% 2.55 39.2% 2.38 42.0% 2.48 40.3% 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.46 68.5% 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Betano Betfair Marathonbet SBO Unibet
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.42 70.4%
home_away 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.43 69.9% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.38 72.5% 1.49 67.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.5 — 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.0 — 1.27 78.7%
Over 2.25 — 1.46 68.5%
Over 2.5 — 1.69 59.2%
Over 2.75 1.86 53.8% 1.79 55.9%
Over 3.0 — 1.99 50.3%
Over 3.25 — 2.21 45.3%
Over 3.5 — 2.44 41.0%
Over 3.75 — 2.83 35.3%
Over 4.0 — 3.58 27.9%
Over 4.25 — 3.96 25.3%
Under 2.75 2.02 49.5% —
Match center
KVC Westerlo
Founded 1933
Charleroi
Founded 1904
Match center

Full head-to-head historyKVC Westerlo - Charleroi

KVC Westerlo
0 matches total
Charleroi
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.