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Jupiler Pro League
Jupiler Pro League Belgium
04.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction
04.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Jupiler Pro League

Belgium

Union St. Gilloise - St. Truiden

Belgium Football
Stadium Stade Joseph Marien
Capacity 9 400
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
1 : 0
Finished
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Union St. Gilloise — 50%

1 · Union St. Gilloise50.5%
X · draw25.8%
2 · St. Truiden23.7%

Model estimate: win Union St. Gilloise 50.5%, draw 25.8%, win St. Truiden 23.7%. Model favourite — Union St. Gilloise.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union St. Gilloise - St. Truiden April 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union St. Gilloise.

Strongest: Union St. Gilloise - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / X 3.70 / 2 4.40
  • 1X2 market: Union St. Gilloise 53.7% / X 25.2% / St. Truiden 21.2%
  • Glicko: Union St. Gilloise 50.5% / X 25.8% / St. Truiden 23.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 14.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6%
1 53.7%
X 25.1%
2 21.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 52.1%
Under 2.5 47.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 53.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 04.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Stadium Stade Joseph Marien (Brussels)
Capacity 9,400

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Union St. Gilloise 50%
💹 Market Union St. Gilloise 5366%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Union St. Gilloise - St. Truiden

Union St. Gilloise: Win 1.57 Union St. Gilloise: Draw 3.60 St. Truiden Win: 5.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.85 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.95 Individualnyy total golov Union St. Gilloise bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Union St. Gilloise menshe 1.5: …

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 0
Statistics 24
Lineups 14
Metric Union St. Gilloise St. Truiden SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.32 0.54 final
Zablokirovannye udary 9 3 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 4 0 final
Udary vsego 16 6 final
Fouls soversheno 9 6 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 1 final
Offsides 1 2 final
St. Truiden #5 K. Mac Allister, #8 A. Zorgane, #10 A. Ait El Hadj, #11 Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho, #16 C. Burgess, #17 R. Schoofs, #25 A. Khalaili, #26 R. Sykes, #37 K. Scherpen
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden football.player.assists 1
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Conceded golov 1
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Seyvy 0
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden football.player.minutes_played 89
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Klyuchevye pasy 35
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Ait El Hadj St. Truiden Otbory vsego 31
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Union St. Gilloise 54.9% 50.5% market and model agree
Draw 24.6% 25.8% draw risk
St. Truiden 20.5% 23.7%
xG - 1.52 : 0.95
Total 2.5 Over 14.6% - Under 85.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.5% / 25.8% / 23.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,714 / 1,602 Union St. Gilloise / St. Truiden
RD 79 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.40 market consensus · no value · model 23.7%
X 3.70 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 50.5%
Double chance
X2 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 74.2%
1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 76.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.60 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.20 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 14.6%
Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · weak value +70.8% · model 85.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.98 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Betano Betfair Pinnacle SBO
1.75 57.1% 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.77 56.5%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.79 26.4% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.79 26.4% 3.33 30.0%
4.15 24.1% 4.59 21.8% 4.55 22.0% 4.40 22.7% 4.60 21.7% 3.82 26.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet Betano Unibet William Hill
no 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 2.14 46.7% 1.95 51.3%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.61 62.1% 1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome 1xBet Betano Betfair SBO Unibet William Hill
draw_away 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.06 48.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.00 50.0%
home_away 1.27 78.7% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 — 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75 — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.40 71.4%
Over 2.25 — 1.60 62.5%
Over 2.5 1.92 52.1% 1.86 53.8%
Over 2.75 — 2.02 49.5%
Over 3.0 — 2.40 41.7%
Over 3.25 — 2.65 37.7%
Over 3.5 — 3.00 33.3%
Over 3.75 — 3.50 28.6%
Over 4.0 — 4.70 21.3%
Over 4.5 — 5.90 17.0%
Over 5.0 — 9.50 10.5%
Under 2.5 1.96 51.0% —
Match center
Union St. Gilloise
Founded 1897
St. Truiden
Founded 1924
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.