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K League 1
K League 1 South-Korea
05.04.2026 07:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 07:30 UTC
Finished

K League 1

South-Korea

Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu FC

South-Korea Football
Stadium Sungui Arena Park
Capacity 20 891
Incheon United
Incheon United
2 : 1
Finished
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Incheon United — 39%

1 · Incheon United39.3%
X · draw27.7%
2 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC33.1%

Model estimate: win Incheon United 39.3%, draw 27.7%, win Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33.1%. Model favourite — Incheon United.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu FC April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Incheon United.

Strongest: Incheon United - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.20 / X 3.25 / 2 3.15
  • 1X2 market: Incheon United 42.1% / X 28.5% / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29.4%
  • Glicko: Incheon United 39.3% / X 27.7% / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 10.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 42.1%
X 28.5%
2 29.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 44.5%
Under 2.5 55.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 41.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 07:30 UTC
Stadium Sungui Arena Park (Incheon)
Capacity 20,891

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Incheon United 39%
💹 Market Incheon United 4213%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Incheon United: Win 2.25 Incheon United: Draw 3.30 Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.70 Individualnyy total golov Incheon United bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov Incheon United menshe 1.5: 1.53 Indi…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 20
Statistics 22
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Normal Goal | S. Mugosa | assist/sub out: Myung Joo Lee Incheon United
25' 25' Goal cancelled | Kim Yi-Seok Gimcheon Sangmu FC
36' 36' Penalty cancelled | S. Mugosa Incheon United
45' 45' Penalty | S. Mugosa Incheon United
45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | Kim Yi-Seok Gimcheon Sangmu FC
45+3' 45+3' Penalty confirmed | Myung Joo Lee Incheon United
46' 46' Substitution 6 | Park Seung-Ho | assist/sub out: Chung-yong Lee Incheon United
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Se-jin Park | assist/sub out: Yoon Jae-Seok Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Metric Incheon United Gimcheon Sangmu FC SStats
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 8 4 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 16 8 final
Fouls soversheno 8 19 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 3 1 final
Ball possession, % 43 57 final
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Incheon United 42.3% 39.3% market and model agree
Draw 28.6% 27.7% draw risk
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29.1% 33.1%
xG - 1.26 : 1.13
Total 2.5 Over 10.9% - Under 89.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 39.3% / 27.7% / 33.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,438 / 1,563 Incheon United / Gimcheon Sangmu FC
RD 133 / 131 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.15 market consensus · no value · model 33.1%
X 3.25 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.20 market consensus · no value · model 39.3%
Double chance
X2 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 60.7%
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%
1X 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 66.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.14 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.02 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.12 market consensus · no value · model 10.9%
Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · weak value +51.5% · model 89.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.28 30.5% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3%
3.20 31.3% 3.05 32.8% 3.22 31.1% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.87 53.5% 1.91 52.4%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.92 52.1% 1.81 55.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.81 55.3% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.65 60.6% 1.63 61.4% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.31 76.3% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.17 85.5%
Over 1.5 1.36 73.5% — 1.31 76.3%
Over 1.75 — — 1.39 71.9%
Over 2.25 — 1.92 52.1% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.97 50.8% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
Incheon United
Founded 2003
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Founded 1985
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.