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31.07.2026 12:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 12:00 UTC
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Kazakhstan: First League Standings
Astana 2 - Arys
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Astana 2 — 70%
Pure model vs market (1 · Astana 2): model 53% · market 71% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Astana 2 70.4%, draw 16.4%, win Arys 13.3%. Model favourite — Astana 2.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Astana 2 (odds1.28)
Score 2:0
confidence 63%
- • Model backs Astana 2: probability 63% vs 78% on the line (odds 1.28)
- • no edge over the line (-15 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 2:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Astana 2 - Arys July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Astana 2. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.28 / X 5.50 / 2 7.30
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.0%
1 ✓ Pick
71.0%
X
16.5%
2
12.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Astana 2
2
:
1
Arys
11.27
X5.43
27.27
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Astana 2 - Arys
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Astana 2
71.0%
70.4%
market and model agree
Draw
16.5%
16.4%
draw risk
Arys
12.5%
13.3%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
70.4% / 16.4% / 13.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,558 / 1,396
Astana 2 / Arys
RD
180 / 186
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,198-1,918 / 1,023-1,768
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
7.30
market consensus · no value · model 13.3%
X
5.50
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.28
market consensus · no value · model 70.4%
Both teams to score
No
2.28
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.51
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.28 43.9% |
| yes | 1.51 66.2% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.65 60.6% | |
| X | 2.99 33.4% |
| 6.20 16.1% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 1.74 57.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.91 52.4% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.84 54.4% | |
| 1.79 55.9% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 0-0-1, avg 4.0 gls
2026-04-30 · Astana Reserves (mol.) 1:3 Arys
Source: ruscore
Astana 2
L
W
L
W
W
Astana 2
1:2
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
Astana 2
1:0
Jaiyq
Jaiyq
Astana 2
1:2
Elimay 2
Elimay 2
Astana 2
6:1
Kaspiy Aktau 2
Kaspiy Aktau 2
Astana 2
2:1
Taraz
Taraz
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2.2
Scored
1.2
Conceded
9
Points
Arys
L
L
W
W
D
Arys
1:4
Shakhter Karaganda
Shakhter Karaganda
Arys
0:4
Turan
Turan
Arys
2:1
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
Arys
3:2
Elimay 2
Elimay 2
Arys
1:1
FK BATYR
FK BATYR
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
2.4
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAstana 2 - Arys
Astana 2
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form