Kazakhstan. Premier League
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Ordabasy — 59%
Pure model vs market (1 · Ordabasy): model 50% · market 60% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Ordabasy 59.2%, draw 23.7%, win Tobol Kostanay 17.1%. Model favourite — Ordabasy.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.87 53.5% |
| yes | 1.84 54.4% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.04 96.2% | 1.13 88.5% |
| x2 | 2.20 45.5% | 2.30 43.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.08 48.1% | |
| X | 2.22 45.1% |
| 5.50 18.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.76 56.8% |
| Under 1 | 1.96 51.0% |
Ordabasy
Kayrat Almaty
Elimay
Kaspiy Aktau
Ulytau
Tobol Kostanay
Atyrau
Kyzylzhar
Okzhetpes
Altay
Full head-to-head historyOrdabasy - Tobol Kostanay
The Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
