PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Croatia: KhNL Standings
Croatia: KhNL Standings
09.08.2026 19:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
09.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Not started

Croatia: KhNL Standings

HNK Hajduk Split - Istra 1961

Football
H
HNK Hajduk Split
- : -
Not started
Istra 1961
Istra 1961

HNK Hajduk Split take on Istra 1961 on August 9, 2026 in the Croatia: KhNL Standings.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 HNK Hajduk Split — 67%

Pure model vs market (1 · HNK Hajduk Split): model 39% · market 69% Δ −30 pp model estimates below the market

1 · HNK Hajduk Split ✓ Pick66.9%
market69%
X · draw19.1%
market19%
2 · Istra 196114.1%
market13%

Model estimate: win HNK Hajduk Split 66.9%, draw 19.1%, win Istra 1961 14.1%. Model favourite — HNK Hajduk Split.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction HNK Hajduk Split - Istra 1961 August 9, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: HNK Hajduk Split. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 5.00 / 2 7.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3% 3 books · best price +3.7%
1 ✓ Pick 68.7%
X 18.8%
2 12.5%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

HNL
League table
HNK Hajduk Split
#70 ptsGP 10-0-11:2
Istra 1961
#80 ptsGP 10-0-12:3
Best price across 12 books
1 1.42 Betano
X 4.80 Marathonbet
2 7.80 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
HNK Hajduk Split
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.68 Conceded 1.33 xG 1.77 xGA 1.06 Corners 3.9
Istra 1961
W-D-L 2-1-7 Scored 0.84 Conceded 1.64 xG 1.18 xGA 1.55 Corners 4.9

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
HNK Hajduk Split
Rating 1542 xG 1.86 Win 64%
Istra 1961
Rating 1409 xG 0.75 Win 14%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
HNK Hajduk Split
68%
1.42
Draw
19%
5.00
Istra 1961
13%
7.50
Total
Over 2.5
57%
1.65
Under 2.5
43%
2.15

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 09.08.2026 19:00 UTC
Market 1 67.9% @ 1.42 / X 19.3% @ 5.00 / 2 12.9% @ 7.50
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model HNK Hajduk Split 67%
💹 Market HNK Hajduk Split 69%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

HNK Hajduk Split - Istra 1961

Form 1/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
HNK Hajduk Split 68.7% 66.9% market and model agree
Draw 18.8% 19.1% draw risk
Istra 1961 12.5% 14.1%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 66.9% / 19.1% / 14.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,400 / 1,500 Hajduk / Istra 1961
RD 291 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 818-1,983 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.37 market consensus · no value · model 14.1%
X 4.84 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 66.9%
Double chance
12 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 80.9%
1X 1.06 market consensus · no value · model 85.9%
X2 2.90 market consensus · no value · model 33.1%
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.15 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.86 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.86 53.8%
yes 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0%
1x 1.04 96.2% 1.07 93.5%
x2 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
1.83 54.6%
X 2.51 39.8%
7.30 13.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.57 63.7%
Under 1 2.25 44.4%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 4-4-2, avg 2.3 gls
2026-04-07 · Khayduk Split 3:1 Istra 1961
2026-01-25 · Khayduk Split 1:2 Istra 1961
2025-10-19 · Khayduk Split 3:0 Istra 1961
2025-08-03 · Khayduk Split 2:1 Istra 1961
2025-04-23 · Khayduk Split 0:1 Istra 1961
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.37 (Pari) · X 5 (Betcity) · 2 7.8 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.37 4.8 7.8
Winline 1.36 4.5 7
Fonbet 1.37 4.8 7.8
Betcity 1.37 5 7.5
Liga Stavok 1.37 4.5 7.2
Source: ruscore · line comparison
HNK Hajduk Split
L
01.08 16:30 UTC Croatia: KhNL Standings
HNK Hajduk Split 1:2 VarazhdinVarazhdin
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points