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King's Cup
King's Cup Saudi-Arabia
08.05.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
08.05.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

King's Cup

Saudi-Arabia

Al Kholood - Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Saudi-Arabia Football
Stadium Kingdom Arena
Al Kholood
Al Kholood
1 : 2
Finished
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al Kholood - Al-Hilal Saudi FC May 8, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

Line favourite market consensus: Al-Hilal Saudi FC. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 11.29 / X 6.38 / 2 1.19
  • 1X2 market: Al Kholood 8.3% / X 14.4% / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 77.3%
  • Glicko: Al Kholood - / X 100.0% / Al-Hilal Saudi FC -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.6%
1 8.2%
X 14.4%
2 77.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.8%
Over 2.5 67.2%
Under 2.5 32.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 7/9
Confidence 77.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 2:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 08.05.2026 18:00 UTC
Stadium Kingdom Arena (Riyadh)

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Match center

Al Kholood - Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Win 1.12 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Draw 8.50 Al Kholood Win: 13.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Al-Hilal Saudi FC bolshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Al-Hilal Saudi FC menshe 2.5: 2.38…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 19
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
min Event Player Team
4' 4' Normal Goal Al Kholood
27' 27' Yellow Card | I. Kortajarena Al Kholood
40' 40' Yellow Card | Moteb Al-Harbi Al-Hilal Saudi FC
42' 42' Normal Goal | Nasser Al-Dawsari Al-Hilal Saudi FC
45+2' 45+2' Normal Goal Al-Hilal Saudi FC
45+5' 45+5' Yellow Card | John Buckley Al Kholood
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Moteb Al-Harbi | assist/sub out: Y. Akcicek Al-Hilal Saudi FC
57' 57' Substitution 1 | Ramzi Sawlan | assist/sub out: Hassan Al-Asmari Al Kholood
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Al Kholood 87.2% - market favourite
Draw 9.0% 100.0% draw risk
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.8% -
Total 2.5 Over 56.6% - Under 43.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.91
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.91

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.72 market consensus · line only
X 7.30 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.06 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 1.03 market consensus · line only
12 1.08 market consensus · line only
1X 4.09 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 5.63 market consensus · line only
2 -1 5.28 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.27 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 56.6%
Under 2.5 2.83 market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.80 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.89 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.12 89.3%
X 8.50 11.8%
13.00 7.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
12.00 8.3% 9.85 10.2% 11.00 9.1% 13.50 7.4% 12.00 8.3% 13.00 7.7%
X 6.50 15.4% 6.35 15.8% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4%
1.20 83.3% 1.19 84.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.15 87.0% 1.15 87.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.83 54.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.76 56.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.83 54.6%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0% 1.03 97.1% 1.05 95.2% 1.03 97.1% 1.00 100.0%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.05 95.2% 1.08 92.6% 1.11 90.1% 1.08 92.6% 1.05 95.2%
home_draw 4.33 23.1% 3.82 26.2% 3.75 26.7% 4.55 22.0% 4.33 23.1% 3.82 26.2%
Match center
Al Kholood
Founded 1957
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Founded 1970
Match center
Al Kholood
D W D W L
18.03 19:00 UTC King's Cup
Al Kholood 1:1 Al-Ittihad FC
28.11 14:50 UTC King's Cup
Al Kholood 4:3 Al Khaleej Saihat
27.10 15:00 UTC King's Cup
Al Kholood 0:0 Al Najma
22.09 15:35 UTC King's Cup
Al Kholood 2:1 Al Bukayriyah
24.09 18:00 UTC King's Cup
Al Kholood 1:3 Al ShababAl Shabab
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
8 Points
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
D W W W D
18.03 19:00 UTC King's Cup
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1:1 Al-Ahli JeddahAl-Ahli Jeddah
29.11 14:40 UTC King's Cup
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4:1 Al-FatehAl-Fateh
28.10 15:10 UTC King's Cup
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1:0 Al OkhdoodAl Okhdood
22.09 18:30 UTC King's Cup
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1:0 Al-Adalah
07.01 17:30 UTC King's Cup
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1:1 Al-Ittihad FC
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.